Opinion: Why Putin will regret launching this war - CNN, and other Shared Stories - 3.7.22
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Peter Bergen is CNN's national security analyst, a vice president at New America and a professor of practice at Arizona State University. The views expressed in this commentary are his own. View more opinion on CNN.
(CNN)Has Vladimir Putin's assault on Ukraine outrun the resources he's committed to it? That's the view of retired US Army Major General Mike Repass, who has an informed vantage point on the conflict, having worked in the Ukrainian security sector since 2016. The former commander of the US Special Operations Command in Europe, Repass provides education and advisory support to the Ukrainian military on a US government contract.
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James 19 mins ago News, US 59 Views
Vladimir Putin is a mysterious former agent of the feared KGB, the intelligence services of the former Soviet Union, whom a meteoric political career made president of Russia and also, as he has shown so far in 2022, with his decision to invade Ukraine, in the most feared man in the world.
After more than 22 years in power and living in a strict bubble, Putin has earned the dubious honor because he has made the world rethink the unthinkable: a nuclear war, with the “mutual assured destruction” that is the ultimate foundation of the existence of the terrible atomic arsenals.
To Putin and his decision to invade Ukraine, in addition to the terrible images that come from that country, we owe a spiral of instability in Europe with unpredictable consequences: shielding itself from possible Russian aggression.
Germany has embarked on doubling its military budget, Finland and Sweden are considering joining NATO, several former Soviet republics are seeking shelter in the European Union. And even Switzerland broke its historic neutrality to send aid to Ukraine, something that did not happen even in World War II.
The meteoric race that brought Putin to the presidency
Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin was born on October 7, 1952 in what was then Leningrad and is now Saint Petersburg. There he studied law and graduated in 1975, the year he joined the Committee for State Security, the infamous KGB.
That, that he had two brothers who had died before he was born, and that he practiced judo and studied German are some of the few biographical facts of his youth that can be considered beyond controversy.
Because as Fiona Hill points out in “Putin, an operative in the Kremlin (Geopolitics of the 21st century)”: “ We ignore some of the most basic facts about a man who is perhaps the most powerful individual in the world.”
Hill points out that this is not surprising because it is about “ a master at manipulating informationsuppress information and create pseudo-information”.
“Materials related to a notorious food scandal that nearly ended Putin’s career in the 1990s have been purged, along with those who had access to them,” says Hill.
In addition, his wife Lyudmila (whom he married in 1983 and whom he divorced in 2014) and his daughters, María and Yekaterina, born in 1985 and 86, have always remained extraordinarily out of the public eye.
These are the people closest to Putin who could influence him in decision-making
We do know that he completed his year of KGB training in Moscow. And that in 1985 was stationed in Dresden, Germany, where he worked on counterintelligence. In 1990, already with the rank of lieutenant colonel, the fall of the Soviet Union brought him back to Russia.
Back in his hometown, he landed a position as deputy dean of his alma mater, Leningrad State University, and as adviser to the mayor, Anatoli Sobchka. In 1991, he was appointed deputy mayor, where he stayed until his boss lost re-election in 1996. He then moved to Moscow.
In the capital began a meteoric political career which led him to be head of the Kremlin Quartermaster, deputy director of the presidential cabinet (1997) and director of the Federal Security Service, heir to the KGB (1998).
In 1999, in the midst of enormous political volatility at the time, President Boris Yeltsin he named him prime minister and designated him as his successor in elections scheduled for the following year.
However, on December 31, 1999, he replaced the resigned Yeltsin as interim president. In March he was endorsed at the polls with almost 53% of the votes. Putin assumed the presidency on May 7, 2000.
Putin, president, prime minister and president
Putin has been in power since he succeeded Yeltsin. He was president until 2008, when the term limit in the Constitution forced him to leave office but not power. What he did was castling with Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev.
President Medvedev, a technocrat, named him prime minister and pushed through reforms to give the post more power. He also extended the presidential term to six years from 2012, when Putin returned to the head of state. He did it with 63.6% of the votes and in the midst of allegations of fraud. In 2021, he promoted reforms to lift these limitations and be able to stay in power until 2036, when he would be 84 years old.
As president, Putin’s years have been marked by the start-up of the enormous propaganda apparatus dedicated to the cult of personality and by the number of poisonings and murders suffered by opponentsas recently happened to Alexey Navalny.
And also, of course, because of the wars in the former Soviet countries, as is now happening in the Ukraine.
He was still prime minister when the Second Chechen War began in retaliation for a series of attacks that killed hundreds of civilians. And he was already president during the siege of the capital, Grozny, which the United Nations came to consider in 2003 the most destroyed city on Earth. There was not a single building left unaffected.
In 2008, it invaded Georgia in what was a story with many parallels to that of Ukraine: a former Soviet republic moved away from Moscow’s orbit, pro-Russians from two provinces rose up against the government, the Kremlin recognized its independence and intervened to save the population of an alleged genocide.
Russian forces have been busy since 2015 intervening in the Syrian civil war, where they came to the rescue of Bashar al-Assad, whose government was not far from falling, cornered by Islamists and rebels supported by the US, Israel and Saudi Arabia.
Ukraine, in 2014, has been a similar case, it also started with a distant former Soviet republic, talking about entering the European Union and NATO, and two provinces with rising pro-Russian militias, in this case Donetsk and Luhansk, whose war Putin fueled until it ended up recognizing them as independent.
Although the case has several important caveats. Putin annexed Crimea (which Ukraine left without water), Ukraine is much bigger (the blitzkrieg doesn’t seem to have worked), the Russians feel it is much closer (there is hope that this will prevent it from turning Kiev into a new Grozny) and the Russian deployment was too large to be able to hide its invasion: in fact, it announced the “military operation” in a speech.
Those who follow him most closely say that Putin is beginning to be aware that time is passing and his dream of a Russian neo-empire is not advancing. In recent months, many observers have begun to speak of radicalization and paranoia, especially given the extreme isolation in which he has lived throughout the pandemic.
Senator Marco Rubio wrote on Twitter that “something is wrong with Putin.” “He has always valued his emotional control, the ability to not show emotion and see the anger the other day, it’s not characteristic,” Rubio told reporters.
“I’m not going to make an assessment of his mental stability, but certainly the rhetoric, the actions, the justification that he gives for what he does is deeply troubling,” he told abcnews White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki on Monday.
French diplomatic sources told Reuters that President Emmanuel Macron encountered a very different Putin during his last visit to Moscow. The meeting of both presidents was described as a monologue of five hours, with a historical revisionism full of the supposed grievances suffered by Russia.
“We realized how different he is from the Putin of three years ago“said the source.
Calls for sanctions against Russia to personally affect Putin himself date as far back as 2014, with the annexation of the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea.
Officially, he has a salary of $140,000 a year, owns an 800-square-foot apartment, a trailer, and three cars.
But multiple investigations have appeared in the media about the alleged vast fortune that he has amassed as in a kind of auction to see who gives the most.
In 2017, Bill Browder, CEO of Hermitage Capital Management, with long experience working in Russia’s power circles, told the Senate Judiciary Committee that estimated Putin’s fortune at 200,000 million. I mean, the president of Russia is secretly richer than Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos combined.
A disgraced source close to Putin told the British news network BBC in 2012 that the president was behind the construction of a ostentatious palace on the shores of the Black Sea which some estimate may have cost $1 billion. The same one that the opposition Aleksey Navalny spoke about in 2021.
The media have also linked Putin to a yacht valued at up to $100 million named ‘Graceful’. Three weeks before the invasion was launched, the ship left Germany for waters off the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad.
In the Pandora Papers, Svetlana Krivonogikh is credited with an alleged romantic relationship with the president and the ownership of a luxurious apartment in Monaco valued at more than $4 million, acquired shortly after giving birth to a girl. The Kremlin has denied the veracity of this story.
And the list of Putin’s alleged assets can go on. But the truth is that beyond the salary, the apartment and the cars, his true heritage is a mystery. And that is why the sanctions are focused on the “oligarchs” considered people from his environment.
In better times, Ukrainian drone enthusiasts flew their gadgets into the sky to photograph weddings, fertilize soybean fields or race other drones for fun. Now some are risking their lives by forming a volunteer drone force to help their country repel the Russian invasion.
“Kyiv needs you and your drone at this moment of fury!” read a Facebook post late last week from the Ukrainian military, calling for citizens to donate hobby drones and to volunteer as experienced pilots to operate them.
One entrepreneur who runs a retail store selling consumer drones in the capital said its entire stock of some 300 drones made by Chinese company DJI has been dispersed for the cause. Others are working to get more drones across the border from friends and colleagues in Poland and elsewhere in Europe.
“Why are we doing this? We have no other choice. This is our land, our home,” said Denys Sushko, head of operations at Kyiv-based industrial drone technology company DroneUA, which before the war was helping to provide drone services to farmers and energy companies.
Sushko fled his home late last week after his family had to take cover from a nearby explosion. He spoke to The Associated Press by phone and text message Friday after climbing up a tree for better reception.
“We try to use absolutely everything that can help protect our country and drones are a great tool for getting real-time data,” said Sushko, who doesn’t have a drone with him but is providing expertise. “Now in Ukraine no one remains indifferent. Everyone does what they can.”
Unlike the much larger Turkish-built combat drones that Ukraine has in its arsenal, off-the-shelf consumer drones aren’t much use as weapons — but they can be powerful reconnaissance tools. Civilians have been using the aerial cameras to track Russian convoys and then relay the images and GPS coordinates to Ukrainian troops. Some of the machines have night vision and heat sensors.
But there’s a downside: DJI, the leading provider of consumer drones in Ukraine and around the world, provides a tool that can easily pinpoint the location of an inexperienced drone operator, and no one really knows what the Chinese firm or its customers might do with that data. That makes some volunteers uneasy. DJI declined to discuss specifics about how it has responded to the war.
Taras Troiak, a dealer of DJI drones who started the Kyiv retail store, said DJI has been sending mixed signals about whether it’s providing preferential access to — or disabling — its drone detection platform AeroScope, which both sides of the conflict can potentially use to monitor the other’s flight paths and the communication links between a drone and the device that’s controlling it.
DJI spokesperson Adam Lisberg said wartime uses were “never anticipated” when the company created AeroScope to give policing and aviation authorities — including clients in both Russia and Ukraine — a window into detecting drones flying in their immediate airspace. He said some users in Ukraine have reported technical problems but DJI has not disabled the tool or given preferential access.
In the meantime, Ukrainian drone experts said they’ve been doing whatever they can to teach operators how to protect their whereabouts.
“There are a number of tricks that allow you to increase the level of security when using them,” Sushko said.
Sushko said many in the industry are now trying to get more small drones — including DJI alternatives — transported into Ukraine from neighboring European countries. They can also be used to assist search-and-rescue operations.
Ukraine has a thriving community of drone experts, some of whom were educated at the National Aviation University or the nearby Kyiv Polytechnic University and went on to found local drone and robotics startups.
“They’ve got this homebuilt industry and all these smart people who build drones,” said Faine Greenwood, a U.S.-based consultant on drones for civic uses such as disaster response.
Troiak’s DJI-branded store in Kyiv, which is now shuttered as city residents take shelter, was a hub for that community because it runs a maintenance center and hosts training sessions and a hobby club. Even the country’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, once paid a visit to the store to buy a drone for one of his children, Troiak said.
A public drone-focused Facebook group administered by Troiak counts more than 15,000 members who have been trading tips about how to assist Ukrainian troops. One drone photographer who belongs to the Ukrainian Association of Drone Racing team told The Associated Press he decided to donate his DJI Mavic drone to the military rather than try to fly it himself. He and others asked not to be named out of fear for their safety.
“The risk to civilian drone operators inside Ukraine is still great,” said Australian drone security expert Mike Monnik. “Locating the operator’s location could result in directed missile fire, given what we’ve seen in the fighting so far. It’s no longer rules of engagement as we have had in previous conflicts.” In recent days, Russian-language channels on the messaging app Telegram have featured discussions on ways to find Ukrainian drones, Monnik said.
Some in Ukraine’s drone community already have experience deploying their expertise in conflict zones because of the country’s long-running conflict with Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine. Monnik’s firm, DroneSec, has tracked multiple instances just in the past year of both sides of that conflict arming small drones with explosives. One thing that Ukrainians said they’ve learned is that small quadcopter drones, such as those sold at stores, are rarely effective at hitting a target with explosive payloads.
“It would seem somewhat short-sighted to waste one,” said Greenwood, the consultant based in Cambridge, Massachusetts. “I assume the chief goal would be recon. But if things are getting desperate, who knows.”
DJI also has experience in responding to warfighters trying to weaponize its drones and used so-called “geofencing” technology to block drone movements during conflicts in Syria and Iraq. It’s not clear yet if it will do the same in Ukraine; even if it does, there are ways to work around it.
Small civilian drones are no match against Russian combat power but will likely become increasingly important in a protracted war, leaving drone-makers no option to be completely neutral. Any action they take or avoid is “indirectly taking a side,” said P.W. Singer, a New America fellow who wrote a book about war robots.
“We will see ad-hoc arming of these small civilian drones much the way we’ve seen that done in conflicts around the world from Syria to Iraq and Yemen and Afghanistan,” Singer said. “Just like an IED or a Molotov cocktail, they won’t change the tide of battle but they will definitely make it difficult for Russian soldiers.”
——
AP video journalist Nathan Ellgren contributed to this report.
Outmanned, outgunned, and relying on sheer willpower to repel Russia’s invading armies, Ukraine’s soldiers may have one big ace up their sleeve.
The Bayraktar TB2 drone, with a wingspan of 12 meters (472 inches) and equipped to carry four laser-guided bombs, has disabled multiple launch rocket systems as well as taken out columns of armored tanks and personnel transporters from the air, seemingly with impunity.
To bolster their esprit de corps and demoralize the enemy, Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s defending troops have been uploading videos to social media taunting Russian troops with tales of the Bayraktar TB2’s lethal strikes executed out of the blue.
A lemur born in Kyiv zoo was even given the name Bayraktar in tribute to the drone, as revealed by the mayor of the capital and former world heavyweight champion, Vitaly Klitschko, on Telegram.
Turkey’s very first unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) may not be anywhere near as state-of-the-art as General Atomics’ MQ-9 Reaper or SkyGuardian drones. Yet its appeal lies in a brutally efficient cost-benefit ratio on the battlefield.
At a price tag estimated to be as little as $1 million, these aircraft are easily expendable compared with other high-tech armaments. And while they have a range typically limited to 150 km (93 miles), they can loiter in the air for over 24 hours, waiting for the right moment to strike.
“It gives Ukraine a new, qualitative edge over the enemy,” Lt. Col. Yuri Ignat, spokesman for the country’s Air Force Command, told Al-Monitor in an interview prior to the invasion. He claimed there were about 20 such UAVs at its disposal, “but we will not stop there.”
The drones are courtesy of Turkish defense contractor Baykar Makina, which says 257 are currently in service worldwide. The company also enjoys a direct link to the top echelon of Ankara’s leadership: One of the late founder’s two sons who run the company is married to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s younger daughter.
Selling like hotcakes
First sold to Turkey’s own military eight years ago, the TB2 proved its worth largely out of sight from Western media during combat missions first in Syria and later Libya in 2020.
It proved so effective against Armenian troops in the disputed Caucasus region of Nagorno-Karabakh that Azerbaijan’s head of state personally distinguished Baykar with an award for its contribution. Thanks to the drone’s success, Baykar says it ended up exporting UAVs worth $360 million dollars in 2020.
Having changed the course of three separate conflicts that year, French daily Le Monde remarked last July that TB2s were “selling like hotcakes.” U.K. defense minister Ben Wallace weighed their purchase even though he had already spent $20 million a piece on SkyGuardian UAVs from General Atomics.
Last May, Poland became the first EU member state to add the TB2 to its military arsenal, acquiring four systems of six drones each for a total of 24 unmanned aircraft. Only weeks later, Latvia’s defense minister hinted it may soon follow. It was Ukraine, however, that proved to be the very first customer to recognize the TB2’s value and import the technology.
In economic terms, conventional forces are struggling to keep pace with advances in drone warfare. Most ground-to-air defense systems are typically expensive and designed to protect against threats like high-impact ordnance and combat jets rather than small, expendable UAVs.
Balancing act
In one well-known example that gave the Pentagon’s top brass pause for thought, a U.S. ally shot down a tiny, off-the-shelf drone likely ordered from a catalog with a $3 million Patriot missile.
“If I’m the enemy,” warned American Gen. David Perkins back in 2017, “I’m thinking, ‘Hey, I’m going to get on eBay and buy as many of these $300 quadcopters as I can and expend all the Patriot missiles out there.’”
With the latest addition to Baykar’s drone program, the higher-altitude Akıncı B, Erdoğan boasted his was now “one of the three most advanced countries in the world in this technology.”
The TB2’s success also highlights the delicate balancing act played by Turkey, a NATO member that straddles Europe and Asia. Invoking wartime clauses in a treaty that grants it power over the Bosporus strait, Turkey managed to shut down access to the Black Sea for incoming naval ships without triggering the ire of Moscow.
By helping the Ukrainians while maintaining faith with the Russians, Erdoğan may come out the “biggest winner” in the conflict, remarked Turkey expert and Brooklyn College associate professor Louis Fishman in a column for Israel’s Haaretz published Wednesday.
Lauren Kahn, a research fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, argues the TB2’s value will likely decrease over time. Having seemingly underestimated the armed resistance they would face, Russia should be expected to deploy its full defensive capabilities, including cyberattacks, against the Turkish drone.
“Bayraktar TB2s are slow, large, low-flying, and radio-controlled, making them comparatively easy targets for more sophisticated, layered air defense systems and electronic warfare capabilities,” Kahn wrote on Wednesday.
Altered the nature of war
Not all Western pundits have been happy to see Baykar’s international success, however. Last August, over two dozen representatives from the U.S. Congress pushed Secretary of State Antony Blinken to suspend export licenses for U.S. technology they argued was finding its way into the Turkish company’s drones.
The proliferation of expendable UAVs in combat has the potential to disrupt the defense industry’s entire playing field, economically speaking, argued Andrew Milburn.
The senior fellow with the Middle East Institute’s Defense and Security Program fears defense contractors are ill suited to develop countermeasures should such drones be deployed against American soldiers and believes a solution to the threat will only be solved in Silicon Valley rather than in the “cubicle warrens” of Lockheed Martin or Raytheon.
“Despite its emergence as an inanimate hero of the Ukraine conflict, the story of the TB2, and its employment by various actors over the last three years, brings with it a dire warning for the U.S. military,” he wrote. “It is Turkey, with a defense budget a fraction of the U.S.’s, that has demonstrated how unmanned platforms changed the nature of modern war.”
Listen in as executive editor Jen Dimascio, defense editor Steve Trimble, London bureau chief Tony Osborne and senior aerospace industry analyst Craig Caffrey have a discussion about the opening days of Russia’s war on its neighbor Ukraine and how that renewed Europe’s focus on defending the continent.
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Rush Transcript
Jen DiMascio:
Hello, and welcome to the Check 6 podcast since Russia's February 24th first strikes all over Ukraine. Aviation Week's team of defense reporters has been on duty. They've been following developments about the war, how Russian air and missile forces executed the strikes, but also the extraordinary way in which this naked display of aggression from Russia against its neighbor has had the, had, had a real effect on the defense posture of Europe. With us today, we have defense editor, Steve Trimble, London Bureau chief, Tony Osborne, and senior analyst Craig Caffrey. I'd like to turn first to Steve Trimble to give us an overview of the situation.
Steve Trimble:
Thank you. Yeah, it's been quite an intense five or six days now. I should say just starting off that, I mean, it's tough to write about this and to be watching this and following this. I'm aware of all of the civilian casualties, all of the military casualties. I know this is, we're just at the beginning of something here. So, we're going to be talking about hardware. We're going to be talking about operations in a cold way, but we are aware of human loss and suffering involved.
Steve Trimble:
So, we are talking at the moment at, what is it? 10:20 AM on the U.S. East Coast, on March 1st. I say that just because the situation has been very dynamic. So it's important to timestamp where we stand before I start talking about where things are in the operational picture. I should also mention that the fog of war still lives especially in this age of open-source intelligence and widespread information warfare campaigns. It's sometimes a little bit difficult to completely validate fact and fiction.
Steve Trimble:
As far as we can understand things, from a multitude of sources, including U.S. DOD intelligence assessments, British military intelligence assessments, open-source intelligence information, the situation stands as clearly Ukraine still survives as a government, as a military. That in itself is impressive to a point, given the numerical disadvantage, and in some cases technical disadvantage at least on paper with the Russian military.
Steve Trimble:
However, that said, the overall operational picture in Ukraine, or for Ukraine is somewhat bleak or dire. You look at the operations by the Russian military, especially in the south and the southeast of the country, moving up from the Crimea Peninsula into the south eastern corner of Ukraine. They have almost completed the land bridge with the Donbas region. Mariupol is still holding out, but it's being encircled, and it looks like an offensive is underway at the moment by Russia to capture that city and complete that land bridge to the Crimean Peninsula. Then as you head west, Russian military is now continuing, but starting a new attack on Kherson, which is just across the Dnieper River on the southern tier of the country, which would give Russia a firm presence on that side of the river if that city falls.
Steve Trimble:
You see residents in Odessa, just southwest of there, along the coast of the Sea of Azov also preparing, or I should say, the Black Sea, also preparing for a Russian assault on that city. Though it doesn't appear especially imminent, at least as of this moment. As you go further north into the northwest area, there is the attack on Kharkiv, where ... I mean, it's almost amazing that city is still, and probably Ukraine's biggest success so far is managing to hold on to that city so close to the Russian border. But it's being encircled and being attacked ferociously with artillery and missile strikes.
Steve Trimble:
The question is how much longer that can hold? Then of course there's what could be considered the main action on Kyiv, the capital. You've got two axes of attack so far. From the northeast and northwest. It does appear perhaps the Russians will try to encircle the city to create a siege. So far, the city is in Ukrainian hands and holding. That's where things stand today. This war kicked off around 4:30 am local time in Kyiv on February 24th, with an opening barrage of about 160 missiles, both cruise missiles and ballistic missiles.
Steve Trimble:
DOD confirmed particularly that the ship launched cruise missiles were involved in the opening. Salvo, you can expect other air launch missiles fired by long range aviation command, bombers, including Kh-101s, Kh-555s also were involved in that first strike. A number of ballistic missiles have been identified, including Tochka. It's not clear if Iskander ballistic missiles were involved in that opening salvo, but they certainly have in subsequent days.
Steve Trimble:
That opening salvo just in those first few minutes of the war accounted for about 42% of all the missiles fired by Russia through the afternoon of the 28th according to the defense department. So, that I think speaks to the somewhat surprising shortage of precision guided missile attacks relative to what we were expecting. I'm not trying to minimize the situation, but you would have expected a much broader and much more numerous opening salvo to hit all the targets that would have existed.
Steve Trimble:
There is something like 135 different just air defense sites throughout Ukraine according to some assessments I've seen. So, targeting all of those, plus the command and control centers, plus other targets of interests would have required just a larger number of missiles. But for some reason we didn't see that. Perhaps not surprisingly then, but in a way still very surprising, Ukrainian air defense still exists. Perhaps even Ukrainian air force aviation to some level exists, although, we haven't seen much evidence of that in the last couple of days. But according to British intelligence updates this morning, the Russian aircraft still do not control the Ukrainian airspace.
Steve Trimble:
Given just widespread assessments of what Russia would want to do in the first few days of the war, it's just a very surprising thing that that still exists, Ukrainian air defense capability at all. Correspondingly perhaps, it does seem that Russian air force activity has been fairly limited, compared to, I would say my initial expectations and several other analysts. Long range aviation command in particular, which is the fleet of Tu-160 and Tu-95 bombers have been noticeably absent since perhaps that first day. There hasn't been a lot of talk I've seen anywhere of further strikes by air launch cruise missiles, or certainly drops of mass precision guided munitions by those types of aircraft over military or civilian targets.
Steve Trimble:
I see a lot of artillery strikes on civilian targets, but not airdrops. The consensus so far for western analysts is that the Russian war plan, their initial plan did not achieve its initial goals, which appeared to have been a very rapid seizure of the Ukrainian government, and the head of the Ukrainian government, sort of rolling over Ukrainian forces in the eastern part of the country, and that did not happen. So, we're seeing over the last couple of days, especially according to British military intelligence assessments, and U.S. DOD assessments, a shift to plan B, which seems to involve much more lethal attacks, much less discriminate attacks that have either accidentally, or intentionally targeted civilian areas, especially in places like Kharkiv, … and even Kyiv. Still not clear if long range aviation command is engaged at this point.
Steve Trimble:
If you go back to Syria and even Chechnya, you saw quite an extensive of long range aviation command assets in both of those conflicts. There was a Tu-22M3, for example. I mean, those planes did deploy in each of those cases, and were used extensively with unguided munitions. We haven't seen that yet. Perhaps the possible theory is that Russia has learned some lessons from the Georgia war in 2008, where Ukrainian air defense systems acquired by Georgia, perhaps even manned by Ukrainian crews, were pretty effective against Russian aircraft, including downing a Tu-22M3 three that appeared to be operating as a surveillance aircraft at the time that was shot down.
Steve Trimble:
So, the lesson so far in the operational side is that the precision guided munition stockpiles are very important in modern war, and keeping those topped up to the maximum extent possible is a very pretty useful thing if you're planning to invade another country. It doesn't appear that Russia has theirs topped up, and there hasn't been any their use of those so far in this conflict, even despite what we've seen.
Steve Trimble:
The survival of the Ukrainian air and missile defense also highlights I think the challenge of establishing air superiority in a modern age with mobile targets. It's not clear yet if that's really a crossover issue for NATO, or if there's some flaw or gap in Russian capabilities that's allowing that to happen.
Steve Trimble:
Finally, the big thing I'm still scratching my head over is, so far, the strikingly quiet posture of electronic warfare, space and cyber domains in this conflict, which was something we thought we'd see a lot more of, it has to be said that these are domains that tend to be quiet even when they're quite active. So, even when you see a kinetic strike that is enabled by something in those domains, traceability, especially to a third party observer is really quite difficult. So, that's part of it. But even so, it does seem like these domains are much quieter than what was expected.
Steve Trimble:
So, we'll see how the after action assessments, and hopefully those will come as soon as possible, because I mean, the war would be over, but it would be interesting to see what comes out of those types of assessments. That's the update on the operational picture. I'll hand it back to Jen.
Jen DiMascio:
Thanks, Steve. With all that's happened we've really seen an extraordinary display of unity within Europe. Tony, I'm wondering if you can describe the situation. What's unfolded in the past week? And why does it matter?
Tony Osborne:
Thanks, Jen. I think looking back at the past few days. I think Steve summed up really well. The shock of what has happened has truly galvanized Europe. After years of rifts between them, we had Trump having a go at the NATO system of, Macron calling it brain dead. And all of a sudden, everyone is on the same footing. They're, they're watching in pure anger. I think that Putin and his ministers actively lied to the world in saying that they wouldn't invade. That was said to the face of the likes of German chancellor Olaf Scholz and French president, Macron.
Tony Osborne:
So in the last few days we've seen Berlin and what was essentially a special relationship it had with Russia, over the course of a 29 minute speech by Olaf Scholz in the German parliament on Sunday, he rewrote the nation's foreign policy. He has set the country on the course to become one of the world's biggest defense spenders, a hundred billion dollar fund to transform the country's armed forces. More on that in a few moments.
Tony Osborne:
We've seen Finland and Sweden, both in military, unaligned for decades are now considering accession to NATO. Finnish parliament was actually discussing that today, and the public opinion polls suggest that the Finnish public are in the favor of it. We've seen Switzerland breaking its long held neutrality and imposing financial sanctions. Then we've got the European Union, which obviously in recent years has taken more interest in defense matters is actually supplying weapons in conjunction with its members, and providing lethal aid to Ukraine. Of course, there was talk about providing fighter jets. That doesn't seem to be coming off smoothly as they hoped, but we're talking about missiles, ammunition, guns, all things that are being requested by president Zelensky and his team in Kyiv. These are on top of the individual contributions made by NATO countries.
Tony Osborne:
Going back to Germany, which is arguably the most significant change of all of this, there is a hundred billion fund, which is likely to fill many of the perceived gaps in its capability. FCAS will be a priority, probably with France. We're likely to see a tornado successor decision in the very near future. It was interesting that Chancellor Scholz did not mention the previous administration's choice of Boeing F-18 Super Hornet, but the A-35 is a likely contender now. We're also likely to see decisions on things like growing base air defense programs, like TLVS.
Tony Osborne:
So, a lot of these programs, a lot of these gaps, decisions on armed vehicles, armed formations, these are all going to be taken with a hundred billion dollar fund. Then the push to get to 2%, which if you remember in previous years, Germany had no intention of getting near that 2% of GDP that NATO had requested its members to go for in terms of spending. Germany hadn't expected to even get to 1.5% by 2025, 2030.
Tony Osborne:
So, 2% is a massive hike. I think Craig will probably allude to in a few moments, it's going to make the country one of the biggest spenders after the U.S. and China. So, yeah, I think NATO is galvanized, the European is galvanized. I think actually, defense secretary, Lloyd Austin, he said, "Mr. Putin does not want a strong NATO on his western flank." And that's exactly what he's getting.
Tony Osborne:
I think Putin really hoped that the various rifts that he's created, dark money, subterfusion of Europe's society and politics over the last decade would have perhaps created a rift, created fragments in how he would pursue a potential invasion of Ukraine, and how NATO and Europe would react, but I think the opposite has happened.
Jen DiMascio:
Craig, you've been following the spending of Europe for a long time, and even charting some growth in European defense spending, since Russian's invasion of the Crimean Peninsula in 2014, but how do these recent events change that outlook?
Craig Caffrey:
Yeah. I mean, it changes it massively. Doesn't it? I mean, Tony has alluded to it already, but I think there's things happening in European defense and security policy now, but certainly before Christmas some would have said were completely impossible. And I think probably the best example of that is Germany's defense budget and what's happening there. I mean, they released ... I think they changed the whitepaper back in 2016, and everyone said they would get more robust about defense policy going forward.
Craig Caffrey:
That robust outlook was to look at moving towards 2% of GDP, when the economic situation allowed. But since then we've seen the defense budget move maybe from around 1.1% GDP, to about 1.3. They were looking at maybe drawing a bit of that back over the next few years. At least that's what the finance plan says.
Craig Caffrey:
This announcement on Sunday, which was actually huge, a hundred billion euros. $112 billion for investments and armor projects for the German forces. That's the big shot and boost. All that money is supposed to come in as a one off special budget within the 2022 budget. Then beyond that as well, they've also said that they want to commit 2% of GDP.
Craig Caffrey:
Essentially what I think this looks like, the details are not exactly clear at the moment, but this huge one time budget is not uncommon with defense budgets around the world. Taiwan did something similar recently, so has Kuwait recently. You approve a huge amount of money. You then pay that out over the short term to kind of fund big capital projects.
Craig Caffrey:
I think that's what gets Germany to 2% of GDP quite quickly. So, that hundred billion won't be able to be spent this year. It'll probably be spent over the next five years. And then in the background, we'll see the core defense budget. So, the annual defense budget that gets approved every year, gradually move up to 2% of GDP.
Craig Caffrey:
I think that'll be a longer term process if nothing, if no other reason than to get to 2% of GDP to boost defense spending by that much. I mean, to put that in context, we're looking at this year 2022, German defense, spending is around $58 billion. To get to 2% of GDP, they'll be close to $90 billion when they get there. So it's a huge increase. There's got to be big decisions there around posture, around force structure and everything else.
Craig Caffrey:
I think all those decisions will only follow once you get a big new defense whitepaper. It'll probably take a year or two to do that. So, I'd imagine sometime 2024 we'll get a new whitepaper. Probably at that point is when you'll see the big growth in the core budget. I think before that it'll all this, this kind of this shot and funding, but I mean, yes, it's absolutely huge. In a global context it's like Tony says, I mean, Germany currently sixth place in the lead table of global defense spend. This will move straight past France and the UK into third place with that $90 billion. So, well beyond what France and the UK spend. Like I said, I think the money will be spent on obviously procurement projects and Tony has gone through a lot of those there now.
Craig Caffrey:
I think that some other things that are short term, spare stocks, I think there's been availability issues with some of the German platforms. Some of that is down to not necessarily having enough spare stocks. I think you could get investments around that. You could potentially get new availability contracts as well, support-wise, maybe some investment in building up munition stocks as well and replenishing some of these consumables that have come out there.
Craig Caffrey:
There's a number of programs that'll probably do well out of it, FCAs is a good example of that. I think before Christmas people thought maybe FCAs was in trouble, certainly in terms of France and Germany and what the relationship was there and how that was going to move forward. But suddenly you've got Germany, that's awash with money, they've set a precedent for exporting arms to conflict zones.
Craig Caffrey:
I think it's an exceptional circumstance. I don't think this completely changes their arms exports view, but it shows that they are flexible under certain conditions. I think certainly Germany realizes that you can't just assume that everybody will be peaceful, and use diplomacy and economic statesmanship. There are countries out there like Russia that do use military force and only understand to some extent, hard power.
Craig Caffrey:
So, I think their reluctance to use offensive capabilities, or incorporate offensive capabilities into these platforms kind of goes away as well. I think that helps the program. I think, Tony again spoke about cooperation That's going to be huge over the next few years. I think suddenly maybe the bickering around industrial work share will to some extent be forced away by the politics of the situation.
Craig Caffrey:
I think a lot of the issues are still there for FCAS, but they've gone away a bit. I think it's good for the program. In the European context, it's absolutely huge. Germany could be the first money. We talk about Germany being the big thing, and it does make a massive difference to European spending. It could be the first money. We've been looking at scenarios of where European spending might go. I'll tell you that before Christmas, in fact, two weeks ago, we were looking at European defense projections that looked a bit of a post-COVID low, people looking at fiscal consolidation, defense growth slowing down after quite a good period, since 2014. Driven then even by … of Crimea by Russia. So, we were looking to spending from about $320 billion to around $340 billion by 2030. So, by 5% real terms of growth, and some potential for short term cuts in 2022, '23, '24.
Craig Caffrey:
Now we're looking at, we think we'll see growth certainly in excess of 30%, or around 30%. Maybe in excess of that. So, certainly spending getting to over 400 billion by 2030, which I just think is completely impossible for not least, because Germany is driving so much of their growth. If no one else increases spending over the next decade, everyone stays completely flat. We still get to 15% growth, just based on what's Germany's done. So yeah, absolutely huge for Europe. There are some implications for global security and everything as well, but I'll leave it there for now. We we can get into it more if we need to, but yeah, absolutely huge.
Jen DiMascio:
Yeah. Tony?
Tony Osborne:
I mean, I've spoken to a few people as a result of what's been happening, the perception is that not many nations will be able to afford what Germany is doing and certainly not on the scale, but certainly the expectation is that nations will have to make more investments. And one of those key investments at this point will probably be in munition stocks, where they've been allowed to progressively deteriorate over the last few years, especially since the Cold War and may have to reach a new normal. And of course the price of current precision guided munitions, particularly those air launch ones, it's going to make that a very expensive process, but that money is going to have to be spent because weapon stocks are now generally low, and countries just do not keep large stocks of weapons anymore. at might be one of the first big investments that we see from European nations going forward.
Tony Osborne:
I don't know whether we're going to see massive investments in combat aircraft or, but maybe perhaps ballistic, anti-ballistic missile systems and that sort of thing. The other big thing that we haven't talked about yet is perhaps what impact this has on things like Asia-Pacific pivots and stuff like that, which France and the UK have been eagerly talking about in their defense reviews in recent years. France has talked about, winning a war before fighting it.
Tony Osborne:
A lot of that is going to have to be radically looked at again. Obviously Germany will probably produce a whitepaper as Craig alluded to. And also NATO is producing a new document on its strategic thinking going forward. A lot of the stuff is going to have to be rewritten. Of course, there is also the issue that, is China and Russia going to become the new aggressor in this future world? We haven't really seen positive anti-invasion language coming out of Beijing from all of this, and several other nations have gone the same way. What are we facing next? And are we going to have to rewrite entire doctrines and strategies based on what occurred in the last week?
Jen DiMascio:
Yeah. I think that raises a lot of interesting questions, Tony. To just close this out, I wanted to narrow the discussion back into Russia a wee bit. What do you guys think the coming days hold for this? Obviously, as you just laid out, it's got huge implications for global security going forward, but just looking at the near term, and I know none of us have a crystal ball and that things have certainly developed in ways we couldn't have foreseen even a week ago, but what are you hearing? And what are you seeing? What could you say might happen in the next couple of days?
Steve Trimble:
I can chime in there. There is quite a bit of noise right now about how this expands beyond purely Russian, Ukrainian conflict, with perhaps NATO logistical support to Ukraine, to something much more dynamic than that, with NATO and [inaudible 00:27:44] no fly zone. That's been requested by Zelenskiy apparently, and entertained by certain even defense experts and security experts, but also just rejected flatly by the White House, and by Boris Johnson and by many other experts who note the type of escalation that that involves right on Russia's doorstep. I would also note in particular the practicalities of this type of operation.
Steve Trimble:
No fly zone over Kharkiv for example, is 20 miles or so away from the Russian border. It is probably 530 or so miles from the nearest NATO base in Romania. That is at the very end of the F-35's mission radius. If you assume that it would have to take a somewhat circuitous route to get there in the first place, it's beyond the radius of the F-22, for example. No refueling support would be available for it. So, there would have to be a constant aircraft coming in and out. Not to mention Russian air defense being all around there, you'd have to do initial cruise missile strikes deep into Russia to take out radars in Bella, Russia, just to make sure that they can actually get in.
Steve Trimble:
I mean, all this talk just seems wildly impractical. Unless there is real tolerance for the genuine risks that come with escalation to that level. That's one aspect of this. I do think ... I mean, Russia is going to have to lick its wounds after this. They've lost a lot of stuff. We don't know how much ... If you just browse through the OSINT pictures, there is a lot of armored vehicles, and tanks and other artillery that are just getting left behind or destroyed, even if some of those are not quite genuine, or not validated at least. It's clear that there are some heavy losses. So, it could be a while before Russia is able to re-mobilize again, especially given the sanctions and the other economic pressures that are being applied on them right now.
Steve Trimble:
So, we all have to take a look back, hopefully when this ends, and hopefully that will be very soon. My worry is that this is just going to keep going and become more of a siege, and much more of a brutal type of military operation that goes on for a long time. I hope it doesn't happen like that, but that's where it seems to be heading.
Jen DiMascio:
Tony?
Tony Osborne:
I agree totally with all Steve just said. Maybe perhaps looking a little bit back at history, Russia doesn't do invasions very well. Certainly, the humiliation of Afghanistan was one of the things that led to the end of the Cold War. When this does come to an end, if it comes to an end quickly, if it comes to an end in a while, significant changes will be afoot.
Tony Osborne:
The other thing to remember is that, there may not be an appetite for this for much longer as well, amongst Putin's minister's, Putin's government, or even Putin's military. Maybe that's something else we need to hope for as well, that maybe, maybe senior generals won't have the appetite to keep this up. Cold War era of Soviet Union, perhaps where, where casualties were, particularly those in Afghanistan were not ... The cost of human life was not as heavily regarded. There are mothers and fathers back in Russia who want to see their kids come home alive. We're not really clear on how much of the information that is coming out of Ukraine is being fed back into Russia at the moment. So, there's a few other issues there too as well.
Jen DiMascio:
Great. Steve?
Craig Caffrey:
I think, trying my best not to think too much about the conflict itself, because I agree with Steve and Tony that I think it seems to be taking a bad turn. I mean, speaking to what I know and defense spending. I think going back very short term to the German question, obviously they're going to try and get the $112 billion special project passed into law. I think there was talk in the speech on Sunday by Olaf Scholz about signing the 2% of GDP into the constitution, which would be a very big deal. I'd imagine that needs to be, if it's going to happen, it's certainly going to happen if it happens in the short term. I don't think when things are looking this bad, because that's a big commitment. Not many countries commit in the constitution by law to do 2% of GDP on defense.
Craig Caffrey:
I think beyond that, I think the same process will be going on in capitals throughout Europe. There was a danger that ... Some of the long term spending plans that came in after the annexation of Crimea were losing steam in some places. I think this reinvigorates those. I think you'll see plans boosted, I think you'll see plans accelerated. I think you'll see cuts go away.
Craig Caffrey:
I think most countries will be looking at that posture now, figuring out what they actually need to do to to actually deter Russia. Rather than just spending a lot on defense, what military capability does this actually produce? Because I think that's maybe the main [inaudible 00:33:48] against Europe is that maybe aside from a handful of countries in Europe, regardless of what they're actually spending on Europe, how much military capabilities is it actually generating? Or is it mostly about industrial programs and modernization, almost for the sake of modernization? I think that's where the reassessments are going to be. So, a horrific time, but fascinating for European defense and security sector.
Jen DiMascio:
Well, unfortunately that's all we have time for. So join us again next week for another edition of the Check 6 podcast. You can subscribe to Check 6 in Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Amazon, Audible and Spotify. Join us again next week and stay safe.
Civilians were also killed Sunday while trying to evacuate near a battered bridge in Irpin, a town outside the capital, Kyiv, visuals verified by The Washington Post showed.
More than 1.5 million refugees from Ukraine have fled to neighboring countries over the past 10 days, the U.N. high commissioner for refugees, Filippo Grandi, said Sunday. He tweeted that the mass exodus is “the fastest growing refugee crisis in Europe since World War II.” Grandi recently predicted that more than 4 million people could be displayed by the conflict in the days to come.
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Russian President Vladimir Putin said Sunday that Russia would press on with its invasion unless Ukraine stopped fighting.
It was time for Ukraine to “show a more constructive approach that fully takes into account the emerging realities,” he said, according to the Kremlin, in an apparent reference to Ukraine’s military and territorial losses since Russia’s invasion. Speaking by phone with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Putin said the war was “going according to plan” and on time. He denied that Russia was responsible for the civilian casualty toll, according to a Russian readout of the call.
A spokesman for the Russian Defense Ministry said Sunday that the military had struck and disabled Ukraine’s Starokostiantyniv military air base, about 150 miles southwest of Kyiv, early Sunday, using long-range, high precision weapons. The airport was among dozens of targets, including a Russian-made air defense system owned by Ukraine, the spokesman said.
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Later Sunday, in a video message, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that a missile strike on Vinnystia, about 70 miles southeast of the air base, had “completely destroyed the airport.”
Zelensky repeated his appeal for allied nations to impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine. “We repeat every day: Close the sky over Ukraine. Close it for all Russian rockets. For all Russian military aviation. For all these terrorists. Make a humanitarian airspace. Without rockets, without bombs from the air. We are people and this is your humanitarian obligation to protect us.”
Failing that, supply “airplanes so that we can protect ourselves,” he added.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Sunday that the United States is exploring how it might supply Ukraine with fighter jets from NATO nations. “We are looking actively now at the question of airplanes that Poland may provide to Ukraine and looking at how we might be able to backfill should Poland choose to supply those planes,” he told reporters during a visit to Chisinau, Moldova.
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“I can’t speak to the timeline but I can just tell you that we’re looking at it very, very actively,” Blinken said.
Russia warned Sunday that foreign countries hosting Ukrainian combat aircraft could be viewed by Moscow as parties to the conflict.
“We know for a fact about Ukrainian combat planes which earlier flew to Romania and other neighboring countries,” Russian Defense Ministry spokesperson Igor Konashenkov said Sunday. “We would like to point out that the use of the network of airfields of those countries for the stationing of Ukrainian combat aviation for the further use against the Russian Armed Forces could be viewed as the involvement of those countries in the armed conflict,” he said.
In Irpin, outside Kyiv, video published Sunday showed a man wearing a yellow armband, usually worn by Ukrainian forces, and carrying a gun over his shoulder as he stands across from a church and sidewalk crowded with people carrying suitcases. He takes a few steps toward an intersection before an explosion rips through the middle of the street.
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The area is covered in smoke. Someone runs out of the building and drags the man with the yellow armband out of the street. Soldiers sprint across the intersection to people collapsed on the ground, and someone shouts, “Medic!”
Associated Press photos of the aftermath show civilians killed in the attack. Lynsey Addario, a photographer working for the New York Times who witnessed the attack, said in a message posted on Twitter that “at least three members of a family of four were killed in front of me.”
Fahim reported from Istanbul, Cahlan from Washington and Ryan from Tallinn, Estonia. Jennifer Hassan in London and Danielle Paquette in Dakar, Senegal, contributed to this report.
Poland is willing to give MiG-29 fighter planes to Ukraine in exchange for a guarantee from the White House that it will provide US-made fighter jets to fill the gap in their fleet. According to a report by POLITICO, the US is in discussion with Poland to potentially backfill its fleet of fighter planes if Warsaw decides to transfer its MiG-29s to Kyiv.
Poland had approached the White House last week after it weighed in on sending its warplanes to Ukraine amid Russia's growing aggression. Warsaw asked the White House if the Biden administration could guarantee fighter jets to fill the gap to which the former replied that they would look into the matter.
“We are working with the Poles on this issue and consulting with the rest of our NATO allies,” a White House spokesperson told POLITICO. “We are also working on the capabilities we could provide to backfill Poland if it decided to transfer planes to Ukraine.”
Several European countries including Poland, Bulgaria and Slovakia retain dozens of Russian-made aircraft in their inventories that could be transferred to Ukraine. A breakthrough in discussions between Warsaw and Washington could lead to a deal that could see Kyiv get more fighter planes in its fleet. Notably, Zelenksyy has repeatedly demanded more aircraft from the world to combat Russia's air superiority.
Poland's move to transfer its Russian-made aircraft to Kyiv could potentially brew trouble between NATO and Russia. So far, NATO has maintained a defensive stance asserting that it did not seek to be a part of the conflict. Fearing an escalation, NATO also denied Ukraine's request for a 'no-fly zone', which was met with a severe reaction from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky who dubbed the organisation 'weak'.
In a video address on Sunday, Zelensky said that the world is strong enough to close 'our skies'. Russia is preparing to bomb Odessa on the Black Sea coast, he cautioned, asserting that it was time for the world to exercise its power to close Ukraine's skies for Russian rockets and aircraft.
However, Russian President Vladimir Putin has clearly warned that any country that sought to impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine would be considered by his administration to have entered the armed conflict.
Follow all the Russia-Ukraine War News and Headlines on Russia-Ukraine War LIVE Updates
According to the reports from local media, Denis Kireev, a member of Ukraine’s peace negotiations team has been killed. Yes, Denis Kireev has been shot dead. It is claimed that he may have been spying for Russia. Some officials in Kyiv said that Denis who was 45-years-old was a spy and former banker killed during an operation while defending the nation. On Saturday, the death of a Ukrainian who was identified by the media as a member of the country’s negotiating team with Russia. Since the news of their death went viral on social media, many officials paid tribute to him and expressed their deep condolence.
First, it was circulating in local media and social media throughout the day that claimed Denis Kireev who took a part in negotiations in Belarus in recent days, had been shot killed by Ukrainian security forces when they were attempting to arrest him. Later, some reports asserted that he had been suspected of treason. The death of Denis Kireev was confirmed by a Facebook post of Ukraine’s defense ministry but the post described that Denis was an intelligence operative for Ukraine who died while serving for nation.
Who Was Denis Kireev?
Denis Kireev is killed along with two more scouts. The statement by Ukraine said,” During the performance of special tasks, three scouts were killed – employees of the Chief Intelligence Department of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine”. Later, the statement added,” They died, defending Ukraine, and their rank brought us closer to victory. Heroes don’t die! They live so long as we remember them!”.
Well, we didn’t find any official comment which was made on the claims of treason that Denis Kireev was killed by the authorities of Ukrainian. Along with Kireev Denis Borisovich, the fate of Alexei Ivanovich and Chibineev Valery Viktorovich was killed in this operation. The official statement reads,” During the performance of special tasks, three spies were killed – employees of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine. On behalf of the Central Intelligence Agency, we express our sincere condolences to the families of the victims”.
Russian and Ukrainian sources claim about his alleged spying activities that he may have been working for both countries. Well, a picture of him is also going viral on social media in which he was sitting on the Ukrainian side of the negotiating table at the first time of talks that took place on February 28, 2022.
Dominic Raab has dismissed fears that Vladimir Putin will use nuclear weapons in the Ukraine crisis, calling his threats “rhetoric and brinkmanship”.
The Russian president alarmed the world by putting his arsenal on high alert – and, overnight, the Kremlin is reported to have claimed that Ukraine is developing a dirty nuclear bomb.
But, asked if that suggested Moscow is seeking an excuse to use battlefield nuclear weapons, Mr Raab replied: “I think it is rhetoric and brinkmanship.”
The Russian president had “a track record of misinformation and propaganda”, the deputy prime minister said.
The comments came as Mr Raab also rejected calls for the UK to make a more generous offer to some of the one million-plus refugees fleeing the conflict as “the wrong thing to do”.
The UK has refused to waive visa rules – in stark contrast to the EU, which has offered asylum to all Ukrainians crossing its borders for three years.
Mr Raab claimed that extending help beyond family reunions and a sponsorship scheme which has yet to start would mean removing “security checks on those coming from a war zone”,
“We have got to look at our security,” he told Sky News’ Trevor Phillips on Sunday programme – claiming the public opposed greater generosity.
“Public support has been incredible, very moving, overwhelming. I think you would start to see that fray,” Mr Raab said.
Fiona Hill, a former member of the US National Security Council, is among Russia experts who have warned that Putin is willing to use nuclear weapons.
“Every time you think, ‘No, he wouldn’t, would he?’. Well, yes, he would,” she said recently.
But Mr Raab brushed fears that an “isolated Kremlin” would reach for its most deadly weapons, saying: “No, I think the debate and rhetoric is just that.”
The justice secretary again ruled out imposing a no-fly zone – despite the pleas of Ukraine’s president – which would lead to a “massive escalation” and would fuel Russia’s claims of a war against the West.
“We’re not going to get ourselves into a direct military conflict with Putin because that would be a massive escalation, but also that feeds Putin’s narrative,” Mr Raab said.
“Putin wants to say that he’s actually in a struggle with the west – he’s not.” No-fly zones are “very difficult, very challenging”, he added.
Mr Raab also dismissed Putin’s claim that the sanctions levelled against him and Russia are a declaration of war, calling them “both legally justified but also proportionate.”
He warned Russian commanders and Putin’s close associates that they risk being prosecuted for war crimes at the International Criminal Court (ICC).
“What they do now, whether they give or whether they follow illegal orders to commit war crimes, they will be held to account for it – and they need to know that,” Mr Raab said.
- 5:24 ET, Mar 6 2022
- Updated: 6:08 ET, Mar 6 2022
A RUSSIAN warlord who led the Neo-Nazi Sparta Battalion has been shot dead in Ukraine in another major blow for Vladimir Putin's stalled invasion.
Vladimir Zhoga was killed during battle in the eastern Ukrainian town of Volnovakha on Saturday.
Denis Pushilin, who heads the breakaway Ukrainian territory of Donetsk, confirmed the kill on his Telegram channel.
"Today, the commander of the Sparta separate reconnaissance battalion, Guards Col. Vladimir Zhoga (nom de guerre Vokha), died like a hero in Volnovakha," he wrote.
According to Pushilin, the commander was killed during an operation to evacuate civilians from Volnovakha - one of cities where Russian troops violated a ceasefire agreement on Saturday.
Zhoga joined Russian-backed rebels in 2014 - the same year in which the Sparta Battalion, a Neo-Nazi militia that has the support of Moscow, was created.
The group is behind a wave of deadly attacks against Ukrainian troops and has been waging war in the Donbass region since hostilities broke out eight years ago.
Its former leader, Arsen Pavlov, known as Motorola, was accused of war crimes in Kyiv and died when he was blown up an explosive device in 2016.
Zhoga's death is another major blow for Putin after he lost two top military chiefs this week and his army fails to make territorial gains as fast as previously expected.
The media reported that Kireyev offered to surrender radicals and nationalists in order to save Kiev, Mariupol, Kharkiv and other cities from destruction. According to other information, he wanted to defect to Russia and testify against Ukraine
That is why he was executed. Previously, Kireyev worked in many of Klyuyev’s corporations and worked in Yanukovych’s team. He left behind a wife and three children.
The main thing to understand here is that the killing of a member of the delegation is a signal to the President’s Office that any agreement in Belarus is not legitimate unless it suits the radicals, who are determined to wage war until the last Ukrainian.
In Mariupol, Azov is disrupting the evacuation of civilians and preventing the organisation of a humanitarian convoy. Near Kiev, rails are being blown up to prevent the evacuation of civilians.
All these processes could derail the third round of negotiations by calling into question the ability of the Ukrainian delegation to implement the agreements. This could lead to a protracted stage of the conflict that cannot be resolved through negotiations.
Earlier it was reported that the SBU liquidated a member of the Ukrainian negotiating team, Denys Kireyev
Ukrainian nationalists continue to demonstrate their nature by using terrorist methods of warfareRussian president Putin tells German Chancellor Scholz either Ukraine concede or we will enforce our demands militarily as Ukrainian president Zelenskiy lambasts Nato for its inaction
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz talked with Russian President Vladimir Putin on the phone on March 4 for an hour and called for an immediate end to all military actions. Scholz also called on Putin to allow access for humanitarian aid in areas where fighting was taking place.
The Russian president said a third round of Russia-Ukraine talks could happen over the weekend, but said his demands remained the same: Kyiv should recognise the Crimea is Russian territory; that Donetsk and Luhansk regions are now independent from Ukraine; and that Ukraine should declare neutrality.
The call was initiated by Berlin and Putin told Scholz that Russia was "open" to talks with Kyiv if all his demands were met. Russia is "open to dialogue with the Ukrainian side, as well as with all those who want peace in Ukraine. But on condition that all Russian demands are met," Putin said, reports Deutsche Welle, citing a German official involved in the talks.
However, Putin went on to say that either Kyiv concede to Moscow demands at the peace talks over the weekend or Moscow would simply impose the conditions on Ukraine “by military means,” Putin told Scholz.
The call came a day after French officials said France's President Emmanuel Macron had also had also spoken with Putin.
During the second round of talks a day earlier the two sides agreed to set up humanitarian corridors to allow civilians from large cities to flee. However, the corridor from the port city of Mariupol in the south of the country failed to be implemented as Russian forces did not cease their shelling, according to reports.
In a bizarre twist to the story Ukrainian media reported that a member of Ukrainian delegation at Gomel peace talks, Denys Kireyev, was killed by Ukrainian Security Service (SBU), as security agents tried to arrest him on suspicion of high treason. He is reportedly linked to elements in the ex-president Yanukovych’s government and had been leaking information to the Russian delegation during the negotiation. The SBU said it has overwhelming information that Kireyev had been acting as a Russian agent.
Zelenskiy condemns Nato for not implementing no fly zone
With a full-scale attack on Ukrainian cities looming and the strikes against residential cities increasing in both number and ferocity, Zelenskiy gave a video address where he lambasted Nato for not doing enough.
Zelenskiy made similar remarks in a televised press conference last week, but scaled up his criticism of Nato over the weekend as it becomes increasingly obvious that Ukraine will be left on its own to face the full weight of the Russian army. His remarks were provoked by a Nato members meeting where it was made clear the no-fly zone Kyiv has been demanding will not be forthcoming.
“Today the alliance’s leadership gave a green light to the further bombardment of Ukrainian towns and villages, refusing to establish a no-fly zone (over Ukraine),” Zelenskiy said during his latest address.
This weekend’s peace talks could prove to be a turning point in the conflict. So far Russia’s invasion force has remains concentrated in the regions just across the borders in the north, east and south of Ukraine, but have not made much progress into the country.
“We are the warriors of light,” Zelenskiy said of Ukrainians during the same address. He was scathing in his criticism of NATO countries, which, despite knowing Russia is only going to escalate in Ukraine, refused to do anything about it and close the sky over Ukraine.
Visibly angry with the material lack of western support in Ukraine’s time of need Zelenskiy lambasted the west for its lack of determination and unity. He said the argument reflected the "self-hypnosis of those who are weak, under-confident inside" and that Western reservations indicated that "not everyone considers the struggle for freedom to be Europe's number one goal".
"All the people who will die starting from this day will also die because of you. Because of your weakness, because of your disunity," a furious Zelenskiy added going on to say that that the only thing that Nato has sent Ukraine is 50 tonnes of diesel fuel.
Phase four of the Russian invasion imminent
As bne IntelliNews opined in a comment on Russia’s “game of chicken”, Putin appears to be ratcheting up the tension incrementally but at each stage pausing to hold talks in an effort to get Kyiv to concede to his demands. In the latest military round of the game Russia has dropped an estimated 500 rockets on Ukraine at the rate of two dozen a day, but has refrained from using its heavy armour and infantry. While the destruction of residential objects has increased in the last days, the death toll amongst Ukrainian civilians remains a relative modest circa 250 and Russia’s own loses are some 500 servicemen according to official estimates.
However, that may change in the coming days. To the north of Kyiv a massive convoy stretching out over 64km remains stationary outside the capital for eight days. While there are reports that the convoy has run out of fuel and food, its presence threatens a full-scale attack on the city and a drastic scaling up of fighting that will result in massive destruction and death.
On March 5 Nato's secretary-general, Jens Stoltenberg, warned that the introduction of a no-fly zone could lead to a "full-fledged war in Europe involving many more countries and causing much more human suffering".
“The only way to implement a no-fly zone is to send NATO planes, fighter planes into Ukrainian airspace, and then impose that no-fly zone by shooting down Russian planes. And our assessment is that we understand the desperation. But we also believe that if we did that, we'll end up with something that could end in a full-fledged war in Europe, involving many more countries, and causing much more human suffering. So that's the reason why we make this painful decision to impose heavy sanctions, provide significant support, stepping up support. But at the same time not involving NATO forces directly in the conflict in Ukraine, neither on the ground, or in their airspace,” Stoltenberg said at a press conference.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken also ruled out the introduction of a no-fly zone, but told the BBC he was convinced Ukraine could win its war with Russia.
"I can't tell you how long this will go on," the US foreign minister said. "I can't tell you how long it will take. But the idea that Russia can subjugate to its will 45mn people who are ardently fighting for their future and their freedom, that does not involve Russia having its thumb on Ukraine, that tells you a lot."
Separately Putin told a meeting of airline workers that any attempt by Nato or the international community to impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine would be regarded by Moscow as “as participation in an armed conflict by that country", implying Russia would see a no-fly zone as an act of war against Russia by the west.
Analysts say that while Nato has the means and authority to impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine, Moscow would see that as an act of war by Nato against Russia. The UN also has the authority to impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine, but both Russia and China have veto’s as members of the UN Security Council (UNSC) and so can block such a resolution by the UN.
In the south-eastern port city of Mariupol, the city's mayor said that residents are under a "blockade" after days of "ruthless" attacks from Russian forces which has seen power and water shut off to the city's 450,00 strong population.
Mariupol’s Mayor Vadym Boychenko pleaded for help and asked for the humanitarian corridor out of the city to be opened. He said the city is cut off from heating, water, and electricity, while people are running out of food and medicine. “We are being destroyed here,” he said.
A humanitarian corridor agreed with Russia at the peace talks on March 5 was not implemented, as the Russian military did not cease their shelling of the outskirts of the city.
The exodus of the besieged Ukrainians continued and gathered momentum over the weekend. As of March 3, more than 1.2 million refugees have left Ukraine since Russia's full-scale invasion began on February 24, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees reports, as cited by the Kyiv Independent.
Another Russian strategic goal was achieved after the North Crimean Canal was unblocked by the advancing troops and begun to fill with water. The peninsula lacks its own fresh water supplies and relies on the canal for drinking water and to irrigate is extensive agricultural production. However, after Russia annexed the peninsula in 2014 Kyiv blocked the canal, cutting off its main water supply. Moscow has struggled to supply the Crimea with enough water and has talked of building extremely expensive desalination plants but unblocking the canal has brought some immediate relief to the parched peninsula.
Putin: The New Abwehr's Kremlin Rat
11:40 AM 3/5/2022 | My Opinion
Putin is the agent, possibly or partially unwitting, of the KGB-STASI-New Abwehr. He was run in pair with Stasi Merkel, as the part of their grand global strategy to integrate Russia with Germany financially. By now it was achieved, and Putin can go: to be dismissed, replaced, overthrown. Scholz has no need for him. The New Abwehr had used him and is ready to spit him out.
M.N.
Days into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Russian troops have faced resistance from Ukrainian forces as they threaten major cities of Kyiv and Kharkiv and drive hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian residents to flee to neighboring countries.
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March 5, 2022
Russia will consider any third-party declaration of a Ukraine no-fly zone as ‘participation in the armed conflict,’ Putin says — 9:53 a.m.
Associated Press
Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Saturday that Moscow would consider any third-party declaration of a no-fly zone over Ukraine as “participation in the armed conflict.”
Aeroflot to halt international flights — 7:46 a.m.
By The Associated Press
Aeroflot, Russia’s flagship carrier, has announced that it will halt all international flights except to Belarus starting March 8.
The move by Russia’s biggest state-owned airline comes after the country’s aviation agency, Rosaviatsiya, recommended that all Russian airlines with foreign-leased planes halt both passenger and cargo flights abroad.
It cited a high risk of foreign-leased planes being impounded as part of Western sanctions that ban leasing of planes to Russia.
Rosaviatsiya’s recommendation doesn’t apply to Russian airlines that use Russian planes or foreign planes that aren’t at risk of being impounded.
It also doesn’t apply to foreign airlines from countries that have not imposed sanctions on Russia and have not shut down their airspace for Russian planes. Aeroflot’s statement Saturday cited “circumstances that hinder operating flights” as a reason for its move.
Aeroflot said it would cancel return tickets for passengers who are scheduled to depart Russia after March 6 and travel back after March 8. Those with one-way tickets will be allowed to fly up until March 8. Earlier this week, S7, Russia’s biggest private airline, announced that it was halting all international flights starting Saturday.
Ukraine-born Mila Kunis and husband Ashton Kutcher pledge to match $3 million in aid donations — 7:39 a.m.
By The Washington Post
Ukrainian-born American actress Mila Kunis, along with her celebrity husband Ashton Kutcher, have agreed to match up to $3 million in donations toward refugee and humanitarian aid for Ukraine.
“The events that have unfolded in Ukraine are devastating. There is no place in this world for this kind of unjust attack on humanity,” Kunis said in a video posted on her husband’s official social media accounts.
“So Ashton and I have decided to match up to $3 million worth of donations . . . in an effort to raise $30 million.”
Ukraine says southeast evacuations halted — 6:50 a.m.
By The Associated Press
The Ukrainian president’s office says civilian evacuations have halted in an area of the country where Russian defense officials had announced a cease-fire.
Kyrylo Tymoshenko, the deputy head of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s office, said the evacuation effort was stopped because the city of Mariupol remained under fire on Saturday.
“The Russian side is not holding to the ceasefire and has continued firing on Mariupol itself and on its surrounding area,” he said. “Talks with the Russian Federation are ongoing regarding setting up a ceasefire and ensuring a safe humanitarian corridor.”
The Russian Defense Ministry said earlier in a statement it had agreed on evacuation routes with Ukrainian forces for Mariupol, a strategic port in the southeast, and for the eastern city of Volnovakha.
But a city official reported that shelling continued in his area Saturday despite the deal, a sign of the fragility of efforts to stop fighting across the country.
Blinken visiting southeastern Poland near border with Ukraine — 6:48 a.m.
By The Associated Press
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is visiting southeastern Poland near the border with Ukraine as the war enters its 10th day. Blinken arrived in Rzeszow on Saturday for talks with top Polish officials and was to visit a frontier post to meet Ukrainian refugees later in the day.
Blinken was meeting Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and Foreign Minister Zbigniew Rau a day after attending a NATO foreign minister’s meeting in Brussels at which the alliance pledged to step up support for eastern flank members like Poland to counter Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Although NATO has ruled out establishing a no-fly zone over non-member Ukraine, it has significantly boosted both military and humanitarian assistance. Rzeszow is about 80 km (50 miles) from the Ukrainian border and its airport has become a hub for flights carrying such aid.
Kremlin spokesman defends law against ‘false information’ — 6:46 a.m.
By The Associated Press
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has defended Russia’s adoption of a law setting out prison sentences of up to 15 years for spreading what is deemed to be fake information about its armed forces.
The measure was signed into law by President Vladimir Putin on Friday and prompted some foreign media including the BBC and Bloomberg to say they were suspending operations within Russia.
Peskov told reporters the measure was justified on the grounds of an “information war which was unleashed against our country.” Asked how Russians could express opinions which don’t match the official government position, Peskov said “within the bounds of the law.”
The passing of the law comes amid a broader crackdown on media outlets and social media in Russia. Facebook and Twitter were both blocked Friday in Russia.
Ukraine exodus reaches 1.45 million, UN agency says — 5:58 a.m.
By The Associated Press
The International Organization for Migration says the number of people who have left Ukraine since fighting began has now reached 1.45 million.
The U.N. migration agency, citing figures from government ministries in countries where they have arrived, said Saturday that 787,300 of them went to Poland. Some 228,700 fled to Moldova, 144,700 to Hungary, 132,600 to Romania and 100,500 to Slovakia.
The IOM said that nationals of 138 countries have crossed Ukraine’s borders into neighboring nations.
Turkish leader to speak with Putin Sunday — 5:50 a.m.
By The Associated Press
Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s spokesman says the Turkish leader will speak with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sunday.
“This war must be stopped immediately and there must be a return to the negotiating table,” Ibrahim Kalin told broadcaster NTV in Istanbul. He said Saturday that “our president will talk to Putin tomorrow.”
NATO member Turkey has close ties to both Russia and Ukraine and has repeatedly offered to mediate between the two. It has invited the top diplomats of both countries to Turkey for talks next week.
Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said Friday that Russian Foreign Minister Seygey Lavrov had confirmed his attendance at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum, to be held in the Mediterranean coastal city between March 11-13.
Italian financial police seize 2 Russian-owned superyachts — 5:45 a.m.
By The Associated Press
Italian financial police have seized two Russian-owned superyachts moored in a Ligurian port after Italy’s foreign minister announced plans to sequester 140 million euros ($154 million) from Russian billionaires in Italy.
Foreign Minister Luigio Di Maio told Italian state TV Friday evening that “this is the only way to convince” Putin “to reason.”
Financial police in the port of Imperia immediately seized the 65-meter (215-foot) “Lady M,” with an estimated value of 65 million euros, owned by Alexei Mordashov, as well as the “Lena,” valued at 50 million euros and belonging to Gennady Timchenko. Other seizures were reportedly under way.
What to know on Russia’s war in Ukraine — 4:21 a.m.
By The Associated Press
As Russia’s war on Ukraine entered Day 10, Russian state media reported the military is observing a temporary cease-fire in two areas of Ukraine to allow civilians to evacuate.
Ukraine’s president was set to brief US senators Saturday on a video conference call a day after calling out NATO for refusing to impose a no-fly zone over his country. The briefing comes as Russian forces continued to batter strategic locations with missiles and artillery.
The UN Security Council scheduled an open meeting Monday on the worsening humanitarian situation.
Here’s a look at key things to know about the conflict Saturday.
France works to secure Ukraine nuclear sites — 3:10 a.m.
By The Associated Press
The office of President Emmanuel Macron says France will soon propose concrete measures to ensure the safety and security of Ukraine’s five main nuclear sites.
The safeguards will be drawn up on the basis of International Atomic Energy Agency criteria, a statement from the French presidency said Saturday.
A Russian attack on a nuclear plant sparked a fire on Friday and briefly raised worldwide fears of a catastrophe. The statement said Macron is “extremely concerned about the risks to nuclear safety, security and the implementation of international safeguards resulting from the Russian invasion of Ukraine.”
Macron said Russia “must immediately cease its illegal and dangerous military actions” and allow Ukrainian authorities full control over all nuclear facilities within Ukraine’s internationally recognized borders. He urged Russia to allow “free, regular and unhindered access for facility personnel to ensure their continued safe operation.”
Russia reports cease-fire in 2 Ukraine areas for evacuations — 3:05 a.m.
By The Associated Press
The Russian military will observe a ceasefire in two areas of Ukraine starting Saturday to allow civilians to evacuate, Russian state media reported, but there was no immediate confirmation from Ukraine. It would be the first breakthrough in allowing civilians to escape the war.
The Russian Defense Ministry statement carried by the RIA Novosti and Tass agencies said it has agreed on evacuation routes with Ukrainian forces to allow civilians to leave the strategic port of Mariupol in the southeast and the eastern town of Volnovakha “from 10 a.m. Moscow time.” It was not immediately clear from the vaguely worded statement how long the routes would remain open.
The head of Ukraine’s security council, Oleksiy Danilov, had called on Russia to create humanitarian corridors to allow children, women and the elderly to escape the fighting, calling such corridors “question No. 1.”
Singapore announces sanctions against Russia — 1:05 a.m.
By The Associated Press
Singapore has announced sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, becoming one of the few governments in Southeast Asia to do so.
“The sovereignty, political independence and territorial integrity of all countries, big and small, must be respected,” said an announcement by the Foreign Ministry.
The tiny city-state imposed controls on exports or transshipments of military-related or dual use items considered “strategic goods.” It said the sanctions were aimed at constraining Russia’s ability to wage war and engage in “cyber aggression.”
The regional commercial hub also said it would prohibit all financial institutions from doing business with four Russian banks: VTB Bank, Bank Rossiya, the Promsvyazbank Public Joint Stock Co., and the Corporation Bank for Development and Foreign Economic Affairs Vnesheconombank. Companies with existing dealings with the four must freeze their assets, it said.
The order also bans providing financial services or enabling financing for the Russian central bank, Russian government and entities owned or controlled by them.
Russia cracks down on dissenting media, blocks Facebook — 12:18 a.m.
By The Associated Press
Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday intensified a crackdown on media outlets and individuals who fail to hew to the Kremlin line on Russia’s war in Ukraine, blocking Facebook and Twitter and signing into law a bill that criminalizes the intentional spreading of what Moscow deems to be “fake” reports.
The moves against the social media giants follow blocks imposed on the BBC, the US government-funded Voice of America and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, German broadcaster Deutsche Welle, and Latvia-based website Meduza. The government’s sweeping action against the foreign outlets that publish news in Russian seeks to establish even tighter controls over what information the domestic audience sees about the invasion of Ukraine.
March 4, 2022
UN council to meet on humanitarian situation — 11:46 p.m.
By The Associated Press
The UN Security Council will hold an open meeting Monday on the worsening humanitarian situation in Ukraine as the Russian offensive intensifies.
The United States and Albania requested the meeting, which will hear briefings by UN humanitarian chief Martin Griffiths and Catherine Russell, executive director of the UN children’s agency UNICEF, diplomats said Friday.
At the request of France and Mexico, the council meeting will be followed by closed consultations on a draft resolution on the humanitarian plight of millions of Ukrainians that the two countries have been spearheading, the diplomats said, speaking on condition of anonymity because negotiations on the meeting have been private.
The United Nations launched an emergency appeal on March 1 for $1.7 billion to respond to soaring humanitarian needs of both people who fled Ukraine and who remain in the country. It immediately received pledges of $1.5 billion, and has urged that the pledges be turned into cash quickly.
The UN estimates that 12 million people staying in Ukraine and four million fleeing to neighboring countries in the coming months will need humanitarian aid.
Video shows events inside Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant as it was being attacked — 11:45 p.m.
By The New York Times
As war loomed, US armed Ukraine to hit Russian aircraft, tanks, and prep for urban combat, declassified shipment list shows — 11:15 p.m.
By The Washington Post
The United States drastically enhanced its shipments of lethal military aid and protective equipment to Ukraine as the prospect of a Russian invasion became more apparent and then a reality, according to a declassified accounting of transfers and sales reviewed by The Washington Post.
The list indicates that as early as December, the Pentagon was equipping Ukrainian fighters with arms and equipment useful for fighting in urban areas, including shotguns and specialized suits to safeguard soldiers handling unexploded ordnance. Over the last week, the Biden administration has increased such shipments, sending Stinger antiaircraft missile systems for the first time and further augmenting Kyiv’s supply of antitank Javelin missiles and other ammunition.
Zelensky to talk to US senators Saturday morning — 11:06 p.m.
By The Associated Press
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will talk to US senators on a video conference call Saturday morning, according to a person familiar with the invitation from the Ukrainian embassy.
All senators are invited to the call, according to the person, who requested anonymity to discuss the private invitation. The meeting will be the first time lawmakers have talked to the Ukrainian president since Russia invaded his country.
The call will come as Congress is considering a request for $10 billion in emergency funding, with money going toward humanitarian aid and security needs in the war-torn country. Approval could come as soon as next week.
Photos: Day 9, more Ukrainians flee as Russia presses on — 9:57 p.m.
By The Associated Press
A Ukrainian father said goodbye to his daughter. Women and children boarded buses and trains. At a border crossing in Poland, people gathered to listen to an Italian pianist.
As Russian forces pressed their campaign on multiple fronts Friday and seized the biggest nuclear power plant in Europe, the number of refugees fleeing Ukraine eclipsed 1.2 million.
US Embassy calls power plant attack war crime — 8:34 p.m.
By The Associated Press
The U.S. Embassy in Ukraine is calling Russia’s attack on a nuclear plant a war crime.
“It is a war crime to attack a nuclear power plant,” the embassy statement said. “Putin’s shelling of Europe’s largest nuclear plant takes his reign of terror one step further.”
Russian troops seized the plant Friday in an attack that set it on fire and briefly raised fears of a nuclear disaster. The blaze was extinguished and no radiation was released.
In a video from hours ago inside of the Zaporizhzhia power plant, someone can be heard saying, “Stop shooting at a nuclear hazardous facility.” CNN’s Erin Burnett said the video was released by the Ukrainian government.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called Russia’s action “nuclear terrorism” and appealed to the U.N. Security Council for action to safeguard Ukraine’s endangered nuclear facilities.
Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal appealed to the International Atomic Energy Agency and the EU to send representatives to all five of Ukraine’s nuclear power plants. “This is a question of the security of the whole world,” he said in a nighttime video address.
Ukraine president, unlikely and unbowed, galvanizes the West — 8:33 p.m.
By Brian MacQuarrie, Globe Staff
He’s a 44-year-old former comedian, a slapstick performer who cemented his celebrity by playing a sitcom character who accidentally finds himself elected president of Ukraine.
Now, in a real-life role where the specter of catastrophe has taken center stage, President Volodymyr Zelensky has become a singular embodiment of Ukraine’s fierce resistance to the invading Russian juggernaut.
Ukraine security council urges escapeways — 7:34 p.m.
By The Associated Press
The head of Ukraine’s security council called on Russia to create humanitarian corridors to allow children, women and the elderly to escape the fighting.
Oleksiy Danilov said Friday more than 840 children have been wounded in the war. A day earlier, the Ukrainian government put the death toll among children at 28.
He spoke ahead of the latest talks between Ukrainian and Russian delegations, planned for this weekend.
“The question of humanitarian corridors is question No. 1.,” Danilov said on Ukrainian television. “Children, women, elderly people – what are they doing here?”
Russian troops have encircled and blockaded several large cities in the south of the country, including Mariupol, trying to cut Ukraine off from the Black and Azov seas.
Ukrainian officials have asked for help from the Red Cross in organizing corridors, describing the situation in the blockaded cities as “close to a catastrophe.”
Ukrainians in US consider taking advantage of new status — 6:21 p.m.
By The Associated Press
Iryna Volvach traveled from Ukraine to California on a tour package with a friend and decided to stay for a few months. When Russia invaded Ukraine, leaving her stuck in the U.S., she worried about her children and grandchildren back home.
As Volvach, 62, tearfully told The Associated Press this week about her efforts to rescue her family, the Biden administration announced humanitarian relief that could keep thousands of Ukrainians in the U.S. without fear of deportation to their embattled homeland.
“Thank you,” Volvach said in English Thursday as the news was relayed to her through her Russian-speaking friend.
“They are happy I am here,” she said in Russian. “They are not worried about me. I am worried about them.”
Volvach’s reaction reflects emotions many Ukrainians who are currently in the U.S. may feel about the decision to grant the Temporary Protected Status they’d been seeking since the Russian invasion, which marks the largest conventional military action in Europe since World War II. The invasion has caused a humanitarian crisis that has driven more than more than 1.2 million people to flee Ukraine since the fighting began, according to the United Nations’ refugee agency.
Refugee advocates applauded the move after more than 177 organizations signed a letter sent to the administration requesting the relief.
Under the federal program, Ukrainians can remain in the country for up to 18 months. In order to be eligible, individuals would have to have been in the U.S. by Tuesday.
Citizens from a dozen countries are already in the United States under the TPS program, which is designated for people fleeing ongoing armed conflict, environmental disasters, or extraordinary and temporary conditions. The countries include Somalia, Yemen, Syria, Haiti and Venezuela.
About 75,100 Ukrainians are expected to be eligible, according to the latest estimates from the Department of Homeland Security. They include about 4,000 people with pending asylum claims and many others who entered the U.S. legally as tourists, business visitors or students on visas that have expired or are about to expire.
Russia’s siege of Mariupol a grim sign for other major Ukrainian cities — 5:55 p.m.
By The Washington Post
Scenes from the city of Mariupol in Ukraine’s southeast have been as grim as they get. No water. No electricity. No heat. And heavy bombardment.
Officials in the encircled city say they can’t offer an accurate estimate of fatalities because no one has been able to leave the relative safety of wherever they’ve taken shelter to go out and find the dead.
Mariupol, a heavily fortified city of 430,000, may be a dismal harbinger of things to come for other Ukrainian cities, as Russian forces — unable to capture the country quickly — carry out siege tactics and mass shelling to take over major metropolitan areas.
Zelensky accuses NATO of allowing bombings — 5:36 p.m.
By The Associated Press
In a bitter and emotional speech, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy criticized NATO for refusing to impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine, saying it will fully untie Russia’s hands as it escalates its attack from the air.
“All the people who die from this day forward will also die because of you, because of your weakness, because of your lack of unity,” he said in a nighttime address. “The alliance has given the green light to the bombing of Ukrainian cities and villages by refusing to create a no-fly zone.”
On Friday, NATO refused to impose a no-fly zone, warning that to do so could provoke widespread war in Europe with nuclear-armed Russia.
“All that the alliance was able to do today was to pass through its procurement system 50 tons of diesel fuel for Ukraine. Perhaps so we could burn the Budapest Memorandum,” Zelenskyy said, referring to the 1994 security guarantees given to Ukraine in exchange for the withdrawal of its Soviet-era nuclear weapons.
“You will not be able to pay us off with liters of fuel for the liters of our blood, shed for our common Europe.”
He said Ukrainians will continue to resist and have already destroyed Russia’s plans for a lightning invasion “having endured nine days of darkness and evil.”
“We are warriors of light,” he said. “The history of Europe will remember this forever.”
Video shows Ukrainian civilian speaking into phone when blast hits Kharkiv — 5:11 p.m.
By The Associated Press
The White House announced Friday that U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris will travel to Poland and Romania next week to meet with officials to discuss the Russian invasion of Ukraine and impact the war is having on the region.
Harris’ agenda for the March 9 to 11 visit to Warsaw and Bucharest is expected to center on economic, security and humanitarian assistance for Ukraine.
“The Vice President’s meetings will also focus on how the United States can further support Ukraine’s neighbors as they welcome and care for refugees fleeing violence,” said the vice president’s deputy press secretary Sabrina Singh.
President Joe Biden spoke on Friday with Poland’s President Andrzej Duda.
Poland is assisting about 700,000 Ukrainians and others who have fled the war so far. The United States has also more than doubled its military presence in Poland, which is a member of NATO, to 9,000 troops in recent weeks.
Video shows Ukrainian civilian speaking into phone when blast hits Kharkiv — 5:02 p.m.
By Amanda Kaufman, Globe Staff
A Ukrainian resident captured the moment a blast hit a nearby building in Kharkiv as he was speaking into his phone, prompting glass to shatter around him and sending him inside a smoke-covered space.
The man appeared to be providing an update to his friends when the blast hit a building in Kharkiv, the country’s second-largest city, which has been under attack from Russian forces.
CNN reported that the recording took place earlier this week as a missile struck Kharkiv’s city council building.
Pence hits Trump: No room in GOP ‘for apologists for Putin’ — 4:50 p.m.
By The Associated Press
Former Vice President Mike Pence will urge Republicans to move on from the 2020 election, declaring “there is no room in this party for apologists for Putin” as he further cements his break from former President Donald Trump.
Pence, in a speech Friday evening to the party’s top donors in New Orleans, will take on those in his party who have failed to forcefully condemn Russian President Vladimir Putin for his unprovoked invasion of Ukraine.
“Where would Russian tanks be today if NATO had not expanded the borders of freedom? There is no room in this party for apologists for Putin,” Pence will say, according to excerpts from the speech. “There is only room for champions of freedom.”
Biden meets with Finnish president to discuss Ukraine — 4:35 p.m.
By The Associated Press
U.S. President Joe Biden and Finnish President Sauli Niinisto met Friday in the Oval Office to discuss the situation in Ukraine but did not directly address the issue of NATO membership. Finland is a “NATO Enhanced Opportunities Partner” like its Scandinavian neighbor Sweden.
Biden thanked the Finnish president for the country’s help for Ukraine. “Finland is a critical partner to the United states, a strong defense partner, a partner to NATO.”
Niinisto thanked the U.S. for “leading in very difficult times.”
White House disavows Graham’s call for Putin assassination — 4:28 p.m.
By The Associated Press
South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham is facing intense pushback from all corners of Washington after calling for the Russian people to end the Ukraine war by assassinating President Vladimir Putin. White House press secretary Jen Psaki said Friday that it is “not the position of the United States government.”
On Friday, Psaki dismissed Graham’s idea out of hand.
“That is not the position of the United States government and certainly not a statement you’d hear come from the mouth of anybody working in this administration,” she said.
Russia blocks access to Twitter — 4:19 p.m.
By The Associated Press
After blocking Facebook, Russia’s state communications watchdog has quickly followed up by declaring a block on Twitter amid the tensions over the war in Ukraine.
The agency, Roskomnadzor, said Friday it cut access to Twitter in line with the Russian Prosecutor General’s office decision. The watchdog has previously accused Twitter of failing to delete the content banned by the Russian authorities and slowed down access to it.
The government is seeking to stifle independent voices about the invasion of Ukraine. The moves against Facebook and Twitter came shortly after officials prevented Russians from accessing reporting from the BBC, German broadcaster Deutsche Welle, Latvia-based website Meduza and the U.S. government-funded Voice of America and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.
US remains resistant to banning Russian oil — 4:15 p.m.
By The Associated Press
White House press secretary Jen Psaki on Friday reiterated that the Biden administration remains resistant for now on banning Russian oil imports, raising concerns that such a ban could have a negative impact for U.S. and European economies. She added, however, that the administration was “looking at options we could take right now to cut U.S. consumption of Russian energy,”
Psaki also called on Russian forces to withdraw Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in southeastern Ukraine. Russian troops seized the plant earlier Friday.
“The best step for nuclear safety would be for Russia to immediately withdraw,” Psaki said.
‘All of you are Ukrainians today’: In video address, Zelensky thanks thousands of pro-Ukraine protesters in multiple European cities — 4:08 p.m.
By The Associated Press
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called on the European nations to support his country’s fight against the invading Russian military.
Zelenskyy appeared on video as he addressed thousands of people protesting the war in several European cities, naming among them Paris, Prague, Lyon, Frankfurt and others. He asked the big crowds not to be silent about what’s going on in his country.
“Don’t turn a blind eye on this,” he said. “Come out and support Ukraine as much as you can,” he said though a translator.
“If we fall, you will fall,” he said.
“And if we win, and I’m sure we’ll win, this will be the victory of the whole democratic world, this will be the victory of our freedom, this will be the victory of light over darkness, of freedom over slavery. And if we win we will become as blossoming as Europe. And Europe will be flourishing more than ever,” he said.
“All of you are Ukrainians today, thank you for this.”
Putin signs bill threatening up to 15 years in jail for anti-war publications — 3:52 p.m.
By The Associated Press
Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a bill introducing a prison sentence of up to 15 years for spreading information that goes against the Russian government’s position on the war in Ukraine.
The bill criminalizing the intentional spreading of what Russia deems to be “fake” reports about the war was quickly rubber-stamped by both houses of the Kremlin-controlled parliament earlier Friday.
Russian authorities have repeatedly decried reports of Russian military setbacks or civilian deaths in Ukraine as “fake” reports. State media outlets refer to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as a “special military operation,” rather than a “war” or “invasion.”
The law envisages sentences of up to three years or fines for spreading what authorities deem to be false news about the military, but the maximum punishment rises to 15 years for cases deemed to have led to “severe consequences.”
Also Friday, Roskomnadzor, the state communications watchdog, blocked Facebook and five foreign media organizations based abroad which publish news in Russian in a sweeping action to establish tight control over information about the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Ukrainians used to play with drones. Now, they fight Russians with them. — 3:41 p.m.
By The Associated Press
In better times, Ukrainian drone enthusiasts flew their gadgets into the sky to photograph weddings, fertilize soybean fields, or race other drones for fun. Now, some are risking their lives by forming a volunteer drone force to help their country repel the Russian invasion.
“Kyiv needs you and your drone at this moment of fury!” read a Facebook post late last week from the Ukrainian military, calling for citizens to donate hobby drones and to volunteer as experienced pilots to operate them.
White House considering ban on Russian oil imports to US — 3:31 p.m.
By Bloomberg News
The Biden administration is weighing a ban on US imports of Russian crude oil as Congress races toward passing such a restriction to punish the Kremlin for its invasion of Ukraine.
Conversations are taking place within the administration and with the US oil and gas industry on the impact such a move would have on American consumers and the global supply, according to people familiar with the matter. A White House spokesperson said no decision has been made.
Russian oil made up only about 3 percent of all the crude shipments that arrived in the US last year, data from the US Energy Information Administration show. US imports of Russian crude so far in 2022 have dropped to the slowest annual pace since 2017, according to the intelligence firm Kpler.
As Ukrainians flee, ‘we even feel a bit guilty we are OK’ — 3:04 p.m.
By The Associated Press
Walking the final 14 miles to Ukraine’s border and to safety, Ludmila Sokol was moved by the mounds of clothes and other personal effects that many people discarded as they fled the fighting before her.
“You should have seen things scattered along the road,” said the gym teacher from Zaporizhzhia. “Because the farther you carry things, the harder it is.”
Like more than 1 million others, she’s grappling with the pain of leaving everything behind.
Russia blocks access to Facebook over the war — 2:11 p.m.
By The Associated Press
Russia’s state communications watchdog has ordered to completely block access to Facebook in Russia amid the tensions over the war in Ukraine.
The agency, Roskomnadzor, said Friday it decided to cut access to Facebook over its alleged “discrimination” of the Russian media and state information resources. It said the restrictions introduced by Facebook owner Meta on the RT and other state-controlled media violate the Russian law.
A week ago, the watchdog announced “partial restrictions” on access to Facebook that sharply slowed it down, citing the platform’s moves to limit the accounts of several state-controlled Russian media. Facebook and Twitter have played a major role in amplifying dissent in Russia in recent years.
The move against Facebook follows the blocks imposed Friday on the BBC, the US government-funded Voice of America, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, German broadcaster Deutsche Welle, and Latvia-based website Meduza, as the government seeks to uproot independent sources of information about the invasion of Ukraine.
Dozens gather at Berlin train station to offer Ukrainian refugees places to stay — 1:44 p.m.
By Amanda Kaufman, Globe Staff
Dozens of people and families have gathered at a central Berlin train station this week to offer space in their homes to people fleeing the war in Ukraine. In photos and video from Reuters, Berlin families were seen at a central train station on Thursday holding signs listing how many people they could accommodate as people disembarked from a train.”1 mother 1 child for 2 weeks,” “3 people (family) 2 weeks,” and “we have a room 2 beds for 1 adult or 1 adult and children,” some of the signs read. ”On the right side there is like thousands of people from Berlin offering place to stay.
“This is absolutely incredible. You just like enter the building and there are like thousands of people supporting,” a woman told Reuters at the station. More than 1 million people have fled Ukraine since Russia began its invasion, and the United Nations warned that millions more would likely flee as Russia continues its assault on Ukrainian cities.
Russia not cooperating on proposed humanitarian corridor in Kherson, Ukrainian officials say — 1:28 p.m.
By The Washington Post
Local officials in the southern Ukrainian city of Kherson said Friday that Russia is not living up to its side of the bargain on proposed “humanitarian corridors,” even as supplies of food and other necessities begin to dwindle in the region. Leaders from Ukraine and Russia announced Thursday they had agreed to temporary cease-fires to support “humanitarian corridors” for civilians to be evacuated and so food and medicine could be delivered. But local Ukrainian officials in the Kherson region say that the Russian military is not working with them and is instead pushing a plan to distribute its own aid unilaterally.
Regional governor Gennady Laguta wrote on Facebook on Friday that the “occupiers” had not given the go-ahead to send humanitarian aid to the Kherson region through the proposed corridor. Laguta said that Ukrainian authorities had readied 19 trucks, but they were not yet being allowed to go in. The Russians “are saying that they will provide humanitarian aid themselves,” Laguta wrote. In his own message to Facebook, Kherson Mayor Ihor Kolykhaiev said that the agreement was not helping the city. “Despite yesterday’s agreements at the highest level, in practice,” Kolykhaev wrote, “all this is not yet working.” “Apparently, the ‘good liberators’ are preparing to bring their ‘salvation’ to Kherson. First, they brought the situation to a critical point, and then they will heroically rescue us,” Kolykhaev wrote, referring to Russia.
A vital port and Black Sea shipbuilding city of almost 290,000 people that lies northwest of the Russian-occupied Crimean peninsula, Kherson was among the first Ukrainian cities that Russian forces targeted as they swept into Ukraine. Eyewitnesses say it is the first major city to fall to Kremlin forces, though Ukraine’s Defense Ministry has not confirmed it is controlled by Moscow. The city, which lies on the Dnieper River, is considered strategically important as its occupation could help Russia cut off Ukrainian forces from the Black Sea coast. Russian forces have also targeted Mariupol, another southern port city, and many expect Russian troops to move on Odessa in the west soon a well. Any delay in the deliveries of supplies to Kherson could have a serious impact on civilians. In an interview on Thursday, the secretary of the city council, Galina Luhova, said the city was low on medicine and food, and facing a “global catastrophe” if no solution could be found. “In Kherson, we are running out of food - literally, we can still last for maybe three, four days,” Luhova said in a telephone interview on Thursday. The fighting has left large portions of Kherson without electricity and running water. “People are in a panic, people are tense, people are frightened just to the core of their souls,” she said.
Kolykhaev said Russian forces were preventing Ukrainian government officials from bringing in supplies, mobile communications had faced problems and the local television center had been taken over. “I give you my word: I do what I can. But I don’t know how long it will take. Please: think, stay human, help each other,” he said. Though Russian troops have suffered set backs in their offensive and have failed to take Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, they have had more success in the south and east of the country. The mayor of Mariupol said Thursday that a Russian siege and hours of shelling that battered rail links and bridges had cut off water, power and food supplies. The mayor of Odessa said the population was preparing to mount a defense amid unverified reports that a large fleet of Russian warships was heading toward waters off the coast.
Russia criminalizes calling for sanctions, spreading ‘fake news’ on military — 11:56 a.m.
By Bloomberg News
Russia’s parliament passed harsh laws that would impose prison terms for people charged with spreading “fake news” about the military or calling for sanctions against the country. People convicted of spreading what the authorities deem to be false information concerning the military’s activities face fines and imprisonment for as long as 15 years under the legislation, which now goes to President Vladimir Putin to sign. The law will allow “those who lied and made statements discrediting our Armed Forces to be punished, and very severely,” as soon as it comes into force, Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin said Friday, when lawmakers in the State Duma unanimously endorsed the measure.
Russia is moving to tighten control of information as its invasion of Ukraine continues for a second week amid international condemnation and the imposition of sweeping sanctions. After initially saying its forces had incurred no casualties in what Russia calls a “special military operation,” the Defense Ministry in Moscow announced Wednesday that 498 of it servicemen had died and nearly 1,600 had been injured in the fighting. Ukraine has claimed Russian casualties are in the thousands.
The BBC is suspending the work of all its news journalists and their support staff in Russia while the broadcaster assesses the implications of the legislation “which appears to criminalize the process of independent journalism,” Director-General Tim Davie said in a website statement Friday. “We are not prepared to expose them to the risk of criminal prosecution simply for doing their jobs,” he said.
While there’ve been only scattered protests so far in Russia against the war, the government has throttled access to social media and ordered Russian news outlets only to publish information from official sources.
Two liberal broadcasters, Ekho Moskvy and TV Rain, went off air Thursday under pressure from prosecutors who’d demanded that access be restricted because of their coverage of the war. The websites of the BBC, Deutsche Welle and Meduza, an independent news group, weren’t accessible Friday. The new legislation threatens fines and imprisonment for seeking to “discredit” Russia’s military, including calls to prevent its deployment in “defense of the interests of the Russian Federation.” People making appeals to join protests also face fines. Lawmakers also approved an addition to the Criminal Code outlawing calls for sanctions against Russia, its citizens or legal entities with a fine of as much as 500,000 rubles ($4,200) or up to three years in prison.
Switzerland follows EU to implement further sanctions on Russia — 11:09 a.m.
By The Associated Press
Switzerland is implementing further trade and financial sanctions against Russia, four days after breaking with its historic neutrality and first adopting measures from the European Union.
The newly adopted sanctions come into effect Friday at 6pm Zurich time, Economics Minister Guy Parmelin told reporters in the Swiss capital, Bern. The country made the decision to follow through on Monday under pressure form the EU to join in punishing the Kremlin and facing criticism from Swiss opposition politicians. Switzerland said the implementation of these sanctions is compatible with its tradition of neutrality and remains open to hosting peace talks as the need arises.
Swiss steps include sanctions in the financial sector that the EU adopted on March 1, in particular with regard to SWIFT. The government said it will freeze assets of more persons with close ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin, bringing the total number of those sanctioned to over 660. Separately, the government has secured the natural gas it needs for this winter and spring but is working to secure it for next winter, said Energy Minister Simonetta Sommaruga.
Switzerland is considering special protection for Ukrainian refugees to fast-track a right of residence. While it discusses with cantonal governments the so-called S statute which would give Ukrainians a right to live for up to a year in Switzerland, the government has given Ukrainians the right to travel to Switzerland visa-free for up to 90 days, said Justice Minister Karin Keller-Sutter.
US Embassy says nuclear plant attack is ‘a war crime,’ Zelensky calls for direct talks with Putin — 10:48 a.m.
By The Washington Post
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reiterated his call for direct talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the invasion of his country, at a time when the US Embassy in Kyiv says that Russia’s overnight attack on a nuclear power plant amounted to “a war crime.”
In his first news conference since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Zelensky on Thursday repeated his desire to have direct talks with Putin, who has rebuffed the Ukrainian president’s request before and during the invasion.
Zelensky made his request despite saying he is living through “a nightmare” and “cannot even imagine the type of man who would plan such acts.”
UK seeking UN emergency session after Russia starts fire in Zaporizhzia — 8:59 a.m.
By The Associated Press
The office of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson says he will seek an emergency UN Security Council meeting after Russian troops in Ukraine attacked a nuclear power plant and sparked a fire.
Johnson’s office says he spoke to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the early hours of the morning. He says Britain will raise the issue immediately with Russia and close partners. Johnson’s office says he and Zelensky agree Russia must immediately cease attacking and allow emergency services unfettered access to the plant. The two agree a ceasefire is essential.
“The Prime Minister said the reckless actions of (Russian President Vladimir) Putin could now directly threaten the safety of all of Europe,” Johnson’s office said in a statement. “He said (the United Kingdom) would do everything it could to ensure the situation did not deteriorate further.”
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says he also spoke with Zelensky about the attacks on the power plant. “These unacceptable attacks by Russia must cease immediately,” he said on Twitter.
Photo: Shelling hits civilian homes in Irpin, outside Kyiv — 7:55 a.m.
Ukraine government, former British PM call for special tribunal to prosecute Putin — 7:52 a.m.
By The Associated Press
LONDON — The Ukrainian government and a former British prime minister are pushing for a special criminal tribunal to prosecute Russian President Vladimir Putin and his allies over the invasion of Ukraine.
Former Prime Minister Gordon Brown said the call for a body to investigate the “crime of aggression” was based on the tribunals that prosecuted senior Nazis after World War II.
The Netherlands-based International Criminal Court is already investigating allegations that Russia has committed war crimes in Ukraine. But while it can investigate genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes, Russia has not signed up to a separate ICC statute under which nations pledge not to commit “crimes of aggression.”
Brown said that “this act of aggression by Russia … cannot go uninvestigated, unprosecuted and unpunished.”
“Putin must not be able to escape justice,” he said.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba welcomed the call for a tribunal, which is backed by legal experts and academics from around the world.
“We are fighting against an enemy who is much stronger than us. But international law is on our side,” Kuleba told a meeting in London by video link from Ukraine.
NATO will not participate in Russia war with Ukraine, no-fly zone — 7:00 a.m.
By The Associated Press
Chancellor Olaf Scholz says Germany and its partners have determined there is currently no risk to the public from a fire at a Ukrainian nuclear plant.
Speaking to reporters during a visit to German troops Friday, Scholz said Germany had immediately performed measurements and exchanged information with other nations following the incident at the Zaporizhzhia plant, where Russian forces attacked late Thursday.
Scholz said the incident shows how dangerous the situation in Ukraine is.
Scholz said it is “completely clear” that NATO will not participate in the conflict in Ukraine, where the country’s president wants a no-fly zone to be imposed.
“Together we are ensuring that nobody attacks NATO territory,” Scholz said, noting that the alliance has positioned additional troops in its eastern member states for this purpose.
Three Ukrainian troops were killed and two wounded in the Russian attack — 6:24 a.m.
By The Associated Press
The head of the UN atomic agency says a Ukrainian nuclear plant was hit by a Russian “projectile” but that the building it struck was a training center and there has been no release of radiation.
Initial reports were unclear about what part of the plant was affected by a fire that broke out after the shelling late Thursday, amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
International Atomic Energy Agency Director-General Rafael Mariano Grossi said Friday that the building was “not part of the reactor.”
He said Ukrainians are still in control of the reactor and the fire has been extinguished.
The Ukrainian state nuclear company said three Ukrainian troops were killed and two wounded in the Russian attack.
The UN says only one reactor at the plant is operating, at about 60% of capacity.
UN human rights body sets up panel on Ukraine — 6:20 a.m.
By The Associated Press
The U.N.’s top human rights body has voted overwhelmingly to appoint a three-person panel of experts to monitor human rights in Ukraine, where Russian forces are invading.
The Human Rights Council voted 32-2, with 13 abstentions, to pass a resolution that was presented by many Western countries and others who have spoken out against Moscow’s attack on its neighbor.
Only Russia and Eritrea opposed the resolution, with China abstaining.
The vote Friday was the culmination of an urgent debate called by Ukraine, during which most council members lambasted Russia.
Many Western envoys sported blue or yellow ties, scarves, jackets or ribbons on their lapels, in a reference to the colors of the Ukrainian flag. Far-flung countries such as Gambia and Malaysia spoke out against the invasion.
The result testified to growing international isolation of Russia: On Monday, five countries — including China — had voted against Ukraine’s effort to convene the urgent debate.
Ukraine’s ambassador Yevheniia Filipenko, her eyes red with emotion, told delegates after the vote: “I thank all those who voted for the right course.”
UN warns of plight of children in Ukraine — 5:30 a.m.
By The Associated Press
UNICEF says that about 500,000 children have been forced to flee their homes in Ukraine over the past week due to Russia’s invasion, calling the exodus “unprecedented in scale and speed.”
“If the violence (doesn’t) stop, many, many more children will be forced to flee their country in a very short space of time,” James Elder, a spokesman for the United Nations Children’s Fund, said Friday. “And we fear many more will be killed.”
He said UNICEF is sending large amounts of humanitarian supplies to Ukraine to help those in need and also providing emergency training to pediatricians who are being sent to the region.
“They’re preparing for a mass casualty of children,” he said, adding that the training included a triage system for treating children.
The International Organization for Migration said Friday that so far 1.25 million people have fled Ukraine, including almost 80,000 third-country nationals.
Google suspends advertising in Russia — 5:26 a.m.
By The Associated Press
Google is suspending sales of online ads in Russia after the country’s communications regulator demanded the tech giant stop spreading through its advertising what Moscow called false information about the Russian military in Ukraine.
The company said late Thursday that the suspension covers YouTube, search, and display ads.
Google is one of the world’s biggest sellers of online ads.
The Russian regulator, Roskomnadzor, issued several notices to Google this week warning the company about spreading false information or demanding it ease restrictions on YouTube channels operated by Russian media.
Separately, Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky tweeted that the short-stay booking site is suspending all operations in Russia and its neighboring ally Belarus. Chesky did not elaborate.
Head of the UN atomic watchdog says there has been no release of radioactive material at Ukrainian plant — 4:58 a.m.
By The Associated Press
The head of the UN atomic agency says a Ukrainian nuclear plant was hit by a Russian “projectile” but that the building it struck was a training center and there has been no release of radiation.
“The real threat to Ukrainian lives continues to be the violent invasion and bombing of their country,” the American Nuclear Society said in a statement.
Russians heading home; reserve right to later legal action — 4:42 a.m.
By The Associated Press
The Russian Paralympic Committee will leave Beijing and has no immediate plans for legal action.
The RPC issued a statement Friday criticizing the decision to exclude Russian athletes from the Paralympics and said the move was “absolutely politicized.” It said its lawyers had determined that the Court of Arbitration for Sport would not be able to render a decision “during the accelerated proceedings.”
The RPC said it reserved “the right to apply to the appropriate international and national court” later at its own discretion. It said it was not “worthwhile at the current time to remain in Beijing” and planned to leave. The team is expected to fly out on Sunday.
The RPC also criticized International Olympic Committee president Thomas Bach, who earlier this week recommended that “international sports federations and sports event organizers not invite or allow the participation of Russian and Belarusian athletes and officials in international competitions.”
It said Bach’s move lead “to the degradation and collapse of the world sport.”
Kremlin tightens grip on Ukraine war coverage — 4:27 a.m.
By The Associated Press
The Russian parliament has passed a bill introducing sentences of up to 15 years in prison for intentionally spreading “fake” information about military action.
Russian state news agencies reported Friday the passing of the bill in the third and final reading.
The development came amid a crackdown by Russian authorities on independent media and criticism of last week’s invasion of Ukraine.
The bill now heads to the upper house of parliament, whose approval is expected to be a formality, before President Vladimir Putin can sign it into law.
Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin says it may enter into force as early as Saturday.
Spreading what Russian authorities deem to be false information is punishable by up to three years in prison, or 15 years if it is deemed to have “severe consequences.” The bill also bans calling for sanctions to be implemented against Russia.
Less than two hours after the bill was passed, news website Znak said it was shutting down, citing “the large number of restrictions which have appeared recently affecting the work of media in Russia.”
Russia’s top independent radio station Ekho Moskvy was closed Thursday and independent TV station Dozdh ceased operations after receiving a threat of closure from the authorities.
Head of the ICRC says the humanitarian group is ‘seeing a devastating humanitarian crisis unfold in Ukraine’ — 4:24 a.m.
By The Associated Press
The head of the International Committee of the Red Cross, Peter Maurer, called Friday for all parties in the conflict to adhere to the rules of war, sparing civilians from military operations and allowing them safe passage.
Maurer said Red Cross teams are “receiving a flood of calls from people desperate for safety.”
“Casualty figures keep rising while health facilities struggle to cope,” he said. “Civilians staying in underground shelters tell us that they fled shells falling directly overhead. They have no extra clothes, supplies or their needed medication. They need assistance now.”
Norway Prime Minister calls nuclear plant attack ‘madness’ — 4:00 a.m.
By The Associated Press
Norway’s Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre said the Russian shelling that led to a fire at Europe’s biggest nuclear plant was “in line with madness.”
The fire was put out early Friday and Ukrainian officials said that radiation levels in the area weren’t at dangerous levels.
If there were a leak, “it will take about 48 hours before it arrives in Norway,” Gahr Støre told Norwegian broadcaster NRK.
In Lithuania, President Gitanas Nauseda described the attacks by Russian forces on Ukraine’s nuclear power plants as “nuclear terrorism” and called for an immediate international response to “Russia’s nuclear crimes.”
The world learned of the 1986 Chernobyl disaster in the Soviet Union only after heightened radiation was detected in Sweden. Norway, which neighbors Sweden, was also able to measure higher-than-normal level of radioactivity 36 years ago.
In recent days, there have been reports that sales of iodine tablets in Sweden and Denmark have increased sharply since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with authorities saying there is no reason for people to be taking iodine tablets linked to events in Ukraine.
China ‘concerned’ about Ukraine nuclear sites — 3:45 a.m.
By The Associated Press
China says it is “seriously concerned about the safety and security” of nuclear facilities in Ukraine following a blaze at Europe’s biggest nuclear plant ignited by Russian artillery fire.
Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin told reporters Friday that China will continue to follow developments at the Zaporizhizhia plant in the city of Enerhodar and “calls on all parties concerned to maintain calm and restraint, prevent further escalation of the situation and ensure the safety of the nuclear facilities concerned.”
“China attaches great importance to nuclear safety and is seriously concerned about the safety and security situation of nuclear facilities in Ukraine,” Wang said.
The spokesperson’s comments marked a rare Chinese sign of unease over the war in Ukraine, in which Beijing has largely sided with its neighbor and close security partner Russia. Chinese leader Xi Jinping hosted Russian President Vladimir Putin in early February, after which the sides issued a lengthy joint statement pledging mutual support.
China has abstained on votes at the United Nations on sanctioning Russia and demanding the withdrawal of Russian troops, and blamed the unprovoked Russian invasion on NATO’s eastern advance and a lack of attention to Russia’s security concerns.
Washington’s newest worry: The dangers of cornering Putin — 3:34 a.m.
By The Associated Press
Senior White House officials designing the strategy to confront Russia have begun quietly debating a new concern: that the avalanche of sanctions directed at Moscow, which has gained speed faster than they imagined, is cornering President Vladimir Putin and may prompt him to lash out, perhaps expanding the conflict beyond Ukraine.
In Situation Room meetings in recent days, the issue has come up repeatedly, according to three officials. Putin’s tendency, US intelligence officials have told the White House and Congress, is to double down when he feels trapped by his own overreach. So they have described a series of possible reactions, ranging from indiscriminate shelling of Ukrainian cities to compensate for the early mistakes made by his invading force, to cyberattacks directed at the US financial system, to more nuclear threats and perhaps moves to take the war beyond Ukraine’s borders.
Ukrainian diaspora helps civilians back home escape the war — 2:52 a.m.
By The Associated Press
While many Ukrainians in Germany — a lot of them from Jewish communities — arrived after the Soviet Union collapsed 30 years ago, those in Poland came more recently, often after 2014, when Russia annexed Ukraine’s Crimea Peninsula, looking for work or for higher education at Polish universities. Ukrainians have been coming to Italy mostly as labor migrants for about 25 years. The women work as maids, cleaners, nannies or caretakers, the men mostly in transport or construction.
Some have returned to Ukraine to fight the Russian army, others are collecting medicine, food and clothes which they pass to relief groups at the Ukrainian border, and many are trying to organize their families’ and friends’ escape out of Ukraine.
A look at weapons used in the Russia-Ukraine war — 2:47 a.m.
By The Associated Press
The Russian invasion of Ukraine is the largest conflict that Europe has seen since World War II, with Russia conducting a multi-pronged offensive across the country.
The Russian military has pummeled wide areas in Ukraine with airstrikes and has conducted major rocket and artillery bombardments, resulting in large numbers of casualties.
Here is a look at some of the weapons being used in the conflict.
Australia freezes $33 million in Russian funds — 2:32 a.m.
By The Associated Press
Australia’s foreign minister says 45 million Australian dollars ($33 million) have been frozen in an Australian financial institution under new sanctions in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Foreign Minister Marise Payne on Friday declined to identify the institution or who owned the money.
Australia has imposed sanctions against more than 350 Russian individuals including President Vladimir Putin. Australia has also targeted with sanctions 13 Belarus entities and individuals including Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin.
Russian airstrike destroyed power plant in Okhtyrka — 2:30 a.m.
By The Associated Press
A Russian airstrike on Thursday destroyed the power plant in Okhtyrka, leaving the city without heat or electricity, the head of the region said on Telegram. In the first days of the war, Russian troops attacked a military base in the city, located between Kharkiv and Kyiv, and officials said more than 70 Ukrainian soldiers were killed.
“We are trying to figure out how to get people out of the city urgently because in a day the apartment buildings will turn into a cold stone trap without water, light or electricity,” Dmytro Zhyvytskyy said.
As Russian forces gain ground in Ukraine, military seizes control of key nuclear plant — 2:10 a.m.
By The Associated Press
Ukrainian authorities said Friday that a fire at Europe’s biggest nuclear plant ignited by Russian shelling has been extinguished and that Russian forces have taken control of the site.
The regional military administration said in a statement that the fire at the Zaporizhzhia plant in Enerhodar was extinguished and that there is damage to the compartment of reactor No. 1 but it does not affect the safety of the power unit.
No information was immediately available about casualties.
The military administration said Russian forces took control of the site and that operational personnel are ensuring its safe operation.
Earlier, plant officials had said that shelling hit an administrative building and reactor No. 1.
The town mayor and state emergency service also said the fire was extinguished.
Ukrainian authorities say fire at Europe’s biggest nuclear plant ignited by Russian shelling has been extinguished — 1:35 a.m.
By The Associated Press
Ukraine’s state emergency service announced on Facebook on Friday that “the fire in the training building of Zaporizhzhya NPP in Enerhodar was extinguished. There are no victims.” It did not mention the fire in a reactor building that had raised international concern.
The mayor of Enerhodar, Dmytro Orlov, announced on his Telegram channel Friday morning that “the fire at the (nuclear plant) has indeed been extinguished.” His office told The Associated Press that the information came from firefighters who were allowed onto the site overnight. The mayor’s office could not provide more details about which buildings were concerned.
Photos: Tearful goodbyes at Kyiv train station during war in Ukraine — 1:34 a.m.
By The Associated Press
These are the goodbyes that have been repeated across Ukraine in the week since Russia invaded and began pounding the country’s cities with bombs. The UN says the fighting has sent more than 1 million people fleeing the country, a number that is already the swiftest exodus of refugees this century and one that could soon skyrocket even further.
Those leaving are overwhelmingly women and children. Ukrainian men have been ordered to stay and fight in the war.
At the train station in Kyiv crowds of people carrying luggage stand in the cold as they wait for their chance to board a train. Mothers hold children bundled in winter jackets and stocking caps, some clutching onto stuffed animals. Men help the elderly get to the train, even using a luggage cart to carry one woman with crutches.
Up and down the platform there are tearful embraces.
As war rages, Paralympics opening in Beijing without Russia — 1:12 a.m.
By The Associated Press
The 2022 Winter Paralympics open Friday in Beijing, with the Russian athletes sent home and the Ukrainian team escaping a war zone to get here.
“It’s a miracle that we have made it to the Paralympics,” the head of the Ukrainian delegation, Valerii Sushkevych, told a news conference on the eve of the Games.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, shortly after the Winter Olympics wrapped up in Beijing, is roiling the world. And the world of sports is no exception.
Paralympics organizers initially announced that Russians and Belarusians would be allowed to compete in Beijing, but reversed course one day before the opening and expelled athletes from both countries. They cited tensions in the Athletes Village.
March 3, 2022
Map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine — 11:18 p.m.
Senator Markey condemns attack on power plant — 11:08 p.m.
By Alyssa Vega, Globe Correspondent
In a series of tweets, Senator Ed Markey condemns the invasion of the largest nuclear power station in Ukraine shelled by Russian troops.
Johnson to seek UN Security Council meeting — 10:56 p.m.
By The Associated Press
LONDON — The office of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson says he will seek an emergency U.N. Security Council meeting after Russian troops in Ukraine attacked a nuclear power plant and sparked a fire.
Johnson’s office says he spoke to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the early hours of the morning. He says Britain will raise the issue immediately with Russia and close partners.
Johnson’s office says he and Zelenskyy agree Russia must immediately cease attacking and allow emergency services unfettered access to the plant. The two agree a ceasefire is essential.
“The Prime Minister said the reckless actions of (Russian President Vladimir) Putin could now directly threaten the safety of all of Europe,” Johnson’s office said in a statement. “He said (the United Kingdom) would do everything it could to ensure the situation did not deteriorate further.”
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says he also spoke with Zelenskyy about the attacks on the power plant.
“These unacceptable attacks by Russia must cease immediately,” he said on Twitter.
What we know about the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant — 10:49 p.m.
By Shannon Larson, Globe Staff
In the latest development on Russia’s intensifying attacks on Ukraine, forces pressed on with their invasion by shelling Europe’s largest nuclear plant in a vital energy-producing city early Friday.
The episode has sparked a fire and spread fears globally of a potential radiation leak from the damage caused to the power station, with some recalling the 1986 Chernobyl disaster that is considered to be the worst nuclear accident in history.
Here’s what we know about the Zaporizhzhia power plant.
Zelensky talks to leaders about nuclear plant — 10:38 p.m.
By The Associated Press
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says he has informed the leaders of the U.S., Britain, the European Union and the International Atomic Energy Agency about the dire threat of nuclear disaster after Russian troops shelled a nuclear power plant.
“If there is an explosion – that’s the end for everyone. The end for Europe. The evacuation of Europe,” he said in an emotional speech in the middle of the night.
“Only urgent action by Europe can stop the Russian troops. Do not allow the death of Europe from a catastrophe at a nuclear power station,” he said
He’s calling on politicians and citizens to pressure Russian leadership to stop Russian troops.
Zelensky updates Biden on nuclear plant fire — 10:10 p.m.
By The Associated Press
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky updated US President Joe Biden about the fire at a nuclear power station shelled by Russian troops.
The White House said Biden and Zelenskyy urged Russia to cease its military activities in the area and allow firefighters and emergency responders to access the site.
Biden also got another update on the situation from the undersecretary for nuclear security at the U.S. Department of Energy and the administrator of the U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration.
Zelenskky also spoke to Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau about the attack.
Atomic watchdog: No radiation change at plant — 9:40 p.m.
By The Associated Press
The International Atomic Energy Agency said on Twitter that it’s been informed by Ukraine’s nuclear regulator that “there has been no change reported in radiation levels” at a nuclear power station shelled by Russian troops.
The agency said its Director General Mariano Grossi was in touch with Ukraine’s Prime Minister Denys Schmygal and the Ukrainian regulator and operator about the situation at the Zaporizhzhia plant.
Grossi “appeals for halt of use of force and warns of severe danger if reactors hit,” the IAEA said in another tweet.
An official in Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s office, not authorized to speak publicly and speaking on condition of anonymity, said the reactors have not yet been damaged and radiation levels are normal.
Video: Apartments, pharmacies struck in Chernihiv, Ukraine — 8:47 p.m.
By Lauren Booker, Globe staff
A video on Twitter shows the moment when the city of Chernihiv, Ukraine was hit with projectiles on Thursday.
Among the buildings hit were a hospital, apartments, and pharmacies, according to The New York Times.
Europe’s largest nuclear power plant on fire after shelling — 7:54 p.m.
By The Associated Press
A spokesman for Europe’s largest nuclear plant says the facility is on fire after Russia attacked the power station in the southern Ukrainian city of Enerhodar.
A government official tells The Associated Press elevated levels of radiation are being detected near the site of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, which provides about 25% of the country’s power generation.
The official spoke on condition of anonymity because the information has not yet been publicly released.
Plant spokesman Andriy Tuz told Ukrainian television that it is urgent to stop the fighting to put out the flames.
Russian troops shelling nuclear power station — 7:16 p.m.
By The Associated Press
Russian troops are shelling Europe’s largest nuclear power station in Ukraine.
“We demand that they stop the heavy weapons fire,” Andriy Tuz, spokesperson for the plant in Enerhodar, said in a video posted on Telegram. “There is a real threat of nuclear danger in the biggest atomic energy station in Europe.”
The plant accounts for about one quarter of Ukraine’s power generation.
The fighting at Enerhodar, a city on the Dnieper River that accounts for one-quarter of the country’s power generation, came as another round of talks between the two sides yielded a tentative agreement to set up safe corridors inside Ukraine to evacuate citizens and deliver humanitarian aid.
The mayor of Enerhodar said Ukrainian forces were battling Russian troops on the city’s outskirts. Video showed flames and black smoke rising above the city of more than 50,000, with people streaming past wrecked cars, just a day after the U.N. atomic watchdog agency expressed grave concern that the fighting could cause accidental damage to Ukraine’s 15 nuclear reactors.
Baker signs order instructing state agencies not to do business with Russia — 7:15 p.m.
By Jeremy C. Fox, Globe Correspondent
Governor Charlie Baker signed an executive order Thursday directing all executive branch agencies to end any contracts with Russian state-owned companies, officials said.
The order also instructs agencies to review any exchanges, partnerships, or affiliations with the Russian government, companies owned by Russia, or entities controlled by Russia.
Biden offers humanitarian relief to Ukrainians in the US — 7:10 p.m.
By The Associated Press
The Biden administration offered humanitarian relief to Ukrainians in the United States on Thursday, which could protect thousands from being deported to their war-torn homeland.
Ukrainians can remain in the country for up to 18 months under the federal program known as Temporary Protected Status. In order to be eligible for the protection, individuals would have to have been in the U.S. since at least Tuesday.
Russian forces push toward major Ukraine nuclear power plant — 6:04 p.m.
ENERHODAR, Ukraine — Ukrainian officials say a column of Russian forces is headed toward Europe’s largest nuclear plant, which accounts for about one quarter of Ukraine’s power generation.
Both the Ukrainian state atomic energy company and the mayor of Enerhodar, Dmytro Orlov, said Russian troops were approaching the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. Officials said loud shots were heard in the city late Thursday.
“Many young men in athletic clothes and armed with Kalashnikov have come into the city. They are breaking down door and trying to get into the apartments of local residents,” the statement from Energoatom said.
Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal has joined Ukraine’s president in calling on the West to close the skies over Ukraine’s nuclear plants as fighting intensified around the major energy hub on the left bank of the Dnieper River and the Khakhovka Reservoir.
Shmyhal said he already had appealed to NATO and the International Atomic Energy Agency, the United Nations’ atomic watchdog.
“Close the skies over Ukraine! It is a question of the security of the whole world!” Shmyhal said in a statement Thursday evening.
The U.S. and NATO allies have ruled out creating a no-fly zone since the move would directly pit Russian and Western militaries.
Pentagon establishes line of communication with Russian ministry of defense — 5:11 p.m.
By The Associated Press
WASHINGTON — The Pentagon has established a channel of direct communication with the Russian ministry of defense to avoid unintended conflict related to the war in Ukraine.
A U.S. defense official said the “de-confliction line” was established March 1 “for the purpose of preventing miscalculation, military incidents, and escalation.” The official spoke on condition of anonymity because the communication line has not been announced.
Biden meets virtually with leaders from Australia, India, and Japan over Russian invasion of Ukraine — 5:00 p.m.
Biden issues new sanctions against Putin’s inner circle — 3:40 p.m.
By The Associated Press
US President Joe Biden’s administration on Thursday announced new sanctions against Russian oligarchs and others in President Vladimir Putin’s inner circle as Russian forces continue to pummel Ukraine.
Those targeted by the new sanctions include Putin’s press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, and Alisher Burhanovich Usmanov, one of Russia’s wealthiest individuals and a close ally of Putin. The US State Department also announced it was imposing visa bans on 19 Russian oligarchs and dozens of their family members and close associates. “These individuals and their family members will be cut off from the US financial system; their assets in the United States will be frozen and their property will be blocked from use,” the White House said in a statement announcing the new penalties.
The White House described Peskov, the Kremlin spokesperson, as a “top purveyor of Putin’s propaganda.” The property of Usmanov and the others will be blocked from use in the US and by Americans. His assets include his superyacht, one of the world’s largest. Usmanov’s private jet, one of Russia’s largest privately owned aircraft, is also covered by the sanctions.
Energy-rich Russia may turn to Bitcoin mining to dent sanctions — 2:45 p.m.
By Bloomberg News
Rich in energy, but starved of foreign currency, Russia may use Bitcoin mining to dent the impact of ever tougher sanctions as the war in Ukraine drags on, according to one analyst. “It wouldn’t be a stretch for the Russian government or certain sanctioned entities to look to mining as a way to get access to Bitcoin,” said David Carlisle, director of Policy and Regulatory Affairs at blockchain analytics firm Elliptic. “They could be translated to goods and services or just hard cash.”
Countries such as Iran might have already leveraged mining of crypto currencies, which is highly energy intensive, to convert its sanctioned energy into Bitcoin and hard currency for the government. About 4.5 percent of Bitcoin mining took place in Iran in the last year, potentially generating $1 billion for the government, Carlisle said. At the same time, Russia and Belarus have been two of the most welcoming countries after China issued a blanket ban on crypto mining last May. China was the largest Bitcoin mining hub in the world and some Chinese miners have migrated to central Asia and eastern Europe, including Russia.
Russia’s President Vladmir Putin has backed crypto mining, despite the Bank of Russia’s proposal to ban mining and trading. Belarus said in January it would continue its liberal crypto rules. Carlisle listed crypto mining along with cyber crime and non-compliant entities such as certain crypto exchanges as three potential ways for Russia to evade sanctions. However, given the size of Russia’s economy and its financial market, crypto is unlikely to play a big role in helping Russia to circumvent sanctions.
Ukrainian forces are using their home-turf knowledge to stymie Russia, top US general says — 2:42 p.m.
By The New York Times
The Ukrainian military is conducting a hugely effective and “mobile” defense, using its innate knowledge of its home turf to stymie Russian forces on multiple fronts, General Mark Milley, the top military adviser to President Joe Biden, said early Thursday.
Although the strategic city of Kherson fell to Russia on Wednesday, officials said that Ukrainian forces were mounting battles up and down the Russian lines with what they described as a resourcefulness and creativity that could trip up Russian troops for weeks or months to come. Milley, chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said the tactics employed by Ukrainian troops included using mobile weapons systems to bedevil the Russians wherever they could. Ukraine’s troops, he said, are “fighting with extraordinary skill and courage against Russian forces.” In standing up to an invading country that dwarfs their own and demonstrating their willingness to die to protect it, “fighting Ukrainian people have become the eyes and ears of the world,” Milley said.
The public comments, made to reporters traveling with him to meet with European officials at NATO, were Milley’s first since President Vladimir Putin of Russia began his brutal efforts to seize Ukraine and topple the democratically elected government of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Milley met with NATO’s secretary-general, Jens Stoltenberg, in Brussels before traveling to Stuttgart to confer with US European Command. Stoltenberg said the Ukrainian military, which has been backed in recent days with arms shipments from NATO countries, was “performing better and putting up more resistance than most experts expected, and surely more than Russia expected.”
Ukraine says at least 33 civilians dead, 18 wounded — 2:38 p.m.
By The Associated Press
Ukraine’s state emergencies agency now says at least 33 civilians have been killed and another 18 wounded in a Russian strike on a residential area in the city of Chernihiv, a city of 280,000 in Ukraine’s north.
The agency said Thursday night that it was forced to suspend the search for more casualties in the rubble because of new shelling.
Earlier Thursday, the agency had said at least 22 civilians had been killed, and had warned that the death toll could rise.
US says Russia progressing in Ukraine’s south but not north, 480 missiles fired — 2:36 p.m.
By The Associated Press
US officials say Russia has fired 480 missiles at Ukraine as Russian troops make more progress in the south, but are largely stalled in the north. The official says about 90 percent of the Russian combat power that had been arrayed around Ukraine is now in the country.
Specifically, the official said that the majority of the Russian missile launches since the war began – or more than 230 of them – are coming from mobile systems within Ukraine. More than 150 missiles have been fired from within Russia, more than 70 from Belarus and only a very small number from ships in the Black Sea. Ukrainian air defenses are still intact and have been effective against the missiles, the official said.
The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss military assessments, said Russian progress in the south has been aided by the country’s eight-year presence in Crimea, where Russia has built infrastructure and systems to sustain troops. As a result, the supply lines to troops in the south are much shorter and more effective. The official said the US has not seen any Russian naval activity or other appreciable moves by Russia to move on Odesa. He said he is not challenging Ukrainian reports of activity there, but that the U.S. can’t independently confirm them. He added, however, that the US believes that Russia’s goal may be to move past Kherson to Mykolayiv in order to set up a base of operations there that they can then use in a move to encircle and take Odesa. The US also assesses that Russian forces are just outside the city of Kharkiv, close to the ring road, the official said.
Ukraine and Russia agree to let civilians leave, deliver aid — 1:24 p.m.
By The Associated Press
Ukraine says it has agreed with Russia to create safe corridors backed by cease-fires to evacuate civilians, deliver aid.
A member of Ukraine’s delegation in talks with Russia says the parties have reached a tentative agreement to organize safe corridors for civilians to evacuate and for humanitarian supplies to be delivered.
Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Ukraine’s President, Volodymyr Zelensky, who took part in Thursday’s talks in Belarus near the Polish border, said that Russia and Ukraine reached a preliminary understanding that cease-fires will be observed in areas where the safe corridors are established.
Canada calls for Russia’s expulsion from Interpol — 1:05 p.m.
By The Associated Press
Canada is calling for Russia’s membership in Interpol to be suspended.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says international law enforcement cooperation depends on mutual respect among members. Britain is also seeking to suspend Russia from the international policing body.
Defense Minister Anita Anand also says Canada is sending more weapons to Ukraine. Anand says Canada is sending 4,500 rocket launchers and 7,500 grenades.
Russia’s siege of key cities fuels a humanitarian crisis — 12:33 p.m.
By The New York Times
A day after gaining control of their first major Ukrainian city, Russian forces on Thursday laid siege to urban areas across the country in a grinding offensive that has pummeled civilian neighborhoods with increasingly heavy artillery and reduced basic services to rubble. The assaults have deepened a humanitarian crisis that has prompted 1 million people to flee the country, and 1 million more to abandon their homes for Ukrainian cities farther from the fighting. The swift fall of the major city, Kherson in the south of the country, raised fears that other cities could soon follow as Russia’s bombardment created pressure on people to surrender. Russian forces appeared to be making their biggest gains in the south, where they had nearly surrounded two strategic cities in an apparent bid to capture Ukraine’s entire Black Sea coast, potentially cutting off the country from world shipping. Here are the latest developments:
— Russian troops have encircled the port city of Mariupol, a key point between the Russian border and the Russia-controlled Crimean Peninsula, and farther west, just north of Kherson, they were bearing down on Mykolaiv. Military experts say that capturing those cities would accomplish Moscow’s strategic objective of cutting off Ukrainian forces that have been battling Russia-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine from the rest of the country.
— Russia’s advance was making less apparent progress against Kyiv, the capital, where a miles-long convoy of hundreds of military vehicles remained about 18 miles from the city center, stymied by what British intelligence officials described Thursday as “staunch Ukrainian resistance, mechanical breakdown and congestion.”
— The United Nations said that 1 million Ukrainians had become refugees in the week since Russia launched its invasion. With more and more of Ukraine cut off from reliable communications, satellite imagery provided a glimpse of the humanitarian crisis, showing people lining up outside grocery stores in parts of the country.
— The Kremlin forced Echo of Moscow, Russia’s flagship liberal radio station, to shut down its radio broadcast and website, in a sign of Putin’s rapid crackdown on dissent since the invasion. Hours later, Dozhd, Russia’s only independent general news channel, announced that it would temporarily stop broadcasting after Thursday because of a looming law criminalizing “fakes” about the war.
Zelensky asks West for more military aid — 12:10 p.m.
By The Associated Press
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has challenged Russian President Vladimir Putin to sit down for talks while urging the West to offer a stronger military assistance to Ukraine to fight the Russian invasion.
In a sarcastic reference to a long table Putin used for his recent meetings with foreign leaders and Russian officials, Zelenskyy said: “Sit down with me to negotiate, just not at 30 meters,” adding, “I don’t bite. What are you afraid of?”
During Thursday’s news conference, Zelenskyy said that prospects for another round of talks between Russian and Ukrainian negotiations don’t seem promising, but emphasized the need to negotiate, adding that “any words are more important than shots.”
He said the world was too slow to offer support for Ukraine and prodded Western leaders to enforce a no-fly zone over Ukraine to deny access to the Russian warplanes. The U.S. and NATO allies have ruled out the move that would directly pit Russian and Western militaries.
Zelenskyy charged that if the West remains reluctant to declare a no-fly zone over Ukraine, it should at least provide Kyiv with warplanes.
Top Russian general killed in Ukraine — 11:50 a.m.
By The Associated Press
Maj. Gen. Andrei Sukhovetsky, the commanding general of the Russian 7th Airborne Division, was killed in fighting in Ukraine earlier this week.
His death was confirmed by a local officers’ organization in the Krasnodar region in southern Russia. The circumstances of his death were not immediately clear.
Sukhovetsky, who was 47, began his military service as a platoon commander after graduating from a military academy and steadily rose through the ranks to take a series of leadership positions. He took part in Russia’s military campaign in Syria.
He was also a deputy commander of the 41st Combined Arms Army.
A funeral ceremony will be held in Novorossiisk, but further details weren’t immediately announced
Zelensky asks Putin to meet — 11:42 a.m.
By The Associated Press
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has called for Russian President Vladimir Putin to meet him, salting the proposal with sarcasm.
“Sit down with me to negotiate, just not at 30 meters,” he said Thursday, apparently referring to recent photos of Putin sitting at one end of an extremely long table when he met with French President Emmanuel Macron.
“I don’t bite. What are you afraid of?” Zelenskyy said at a Thursday news conference.
Zelenskyy said it was sensible to have talks: “Any words are more important than shots.”
Zelensky on Russian troops: ‘These are not warriors of a superpower. These are confused children who have been used.’ — 11:36 a.m.
By The New York Times
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine early Thursday portrayed invading Russian troops as directionless and asserted that the invasion plans of Russian President Vladimir Putin had been “ruined,” even as the first major Ukrainian city fell in the war.
“Our soldiers, our border guards, our territorial defense, even simple farmers are capturing Russian soldiers every day, and all of them are saying the same thing: They don’t know why they are here,’’ Zelenskyy said in a speech posted on his Facebook page. “These are not warriors of a superpower. These are confused children who have been used.”
“Even though there are 10 times more of them, the enemy’s morale is getting lower and lower,” Zelenskyy said. “We are a people who have ruined our enemy’s plans in one week.”
Russian strikes on Kharkiv civilians could amount to war crimes, Amnesty International says — 11:25 a.m.
By Christina Prignano, Globe Staff
The human rights group Amnesty International on Thursday released an analysis of recent Russian strikes in Kharkiv, alleging that Russia committed possible war crimes as peace talks between Ukrainian and Russian officials got underway.
The analysis included a 3D model of targeted areas in Kharkiv overlaid with images and video of the attack, which took place Monday. Amnesty International also said it collected witness statements.
EU seeks to suspend Russia’s most-favored nation status at WTO — 10:54 a.m.
By Bloomberg News
The European Union is seeking to remove Russia’s most-favored nation status at the World Trade Organization, a move that could further hit 95 billion euros ($105 billion) of Moscow’s exports to the bloc with tariffs.
The European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, is discussing the possibility with member states, according to commission spokeswoman Miriam Garcia Ferrer.
The sanctions already imposed by the EU have closed off a significant portion of financial and trade ties with most European companies. Ending most-favored nation status would increase costs via tariffs for any EU companies still doing business with Russia.
Russian troops move in on key energy hub in Ukraine — 10:52 a.m.
By The Associated Press
The town’s Mayor says that a large Russian convoy is moving in on the city of Enerhodar, a key energy hub on the Dnieper River.
Russian military escalation is a threat to human rights, says UN — 10:48 a.m.
By The Associated Press
The UN human rights chief says military operations in Ukraine are “escalating further as we speak” and warned of “concerning reports” of the use of cluster bombs. Michelle Bachelet said the Ukrainian town of Volnovakha in the eastern Donetsk region, where pro-Russian separatists seized territory in 2014, leading to a drawn-out military conflict, “has been almost completely destroyed by shelling,” with residents hiding in basements. She spoke Thursday during an “urgent debate” at the Human Rights Council, where country after country spoke out against Russia’s invasion. Many Western envoys sported blue or yellow ties, scarves, jackets, or ribbons on their lapels – colors of the Ukrainian flag.
Delegates will vote Friday on a resolution that would create a three-person panel of experts to monitor human rights and report on rights abuses and violations in Ukraine. US Ambassador Sheba Crocker said her country was “deeply alarmed” by reports of “Russia’s deployment of weapons such as cluster munitions and thermobarics against cities where innocent people are sheltering.” She urged countries to vote for the resolution.
Chen Xu, China’s ambassador, hailed diplomatic talks between Russia and Ukraine but said his country opposed efforts to “politicize” human rights. He said China would vote against the resolution.
Ukraine and Russia begin second round of peace talks — 10:45 a.m.
By The Associated Press
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s office says a second round of talks with Russia about the war in Ukraine has begun in neighboring Belarus. A video released by Zelensky’s office Thursday showed the informally dressed Ukrainian delegation walking into the meeting room where they shook hands with Russian delegates in suits and ties.
The talks are aimed at stopping the fighting that has sent more than 1 million people fleeing over Ukraine’s borders, but the two sides appeared to have little common ground. Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned Ukraine that it must quickly accept the Kremlin’s demand for its “demilitarization” and declare itself neutral, formally renouncing its bid to join NATO. Putin has long contended that Ukraine’s turn toward the West is a threat to Moscow, an argument he used to justify last week’s invasion.
The talks came as the Russian military made significant gains in the south of Ukraine as part of an effort to sever the country’s connection to the Black and Azov seas.
France says Putin expressed confidence and determination to continue invasion — 10:42 a.m.
By The Associated Press
A French official says French President Emmanuel Macron has spoken for 90 minutes by phone with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who told Macron that military operations in Ukraine are “going according to plan.”
The official at the French Elysee presidential palace said Putin told Macron the conflict would continue “until the end” unless negotiations meet his terms. Putin said negotiations must center on the “neutralization and disarmament of Ukraine,” according to the French official. Putin reportedly said he would attain that goal by military means, if not by political and diplomatic means.
The official said the two leaders spoke at Putin’s request. The French official could not be named in keeping with Elysee practice.
Canada announces 35 perfect tariff on Russian imports — 10:13 a.m.
By The Associated Press
Canada is announcing a 35 percent tariff on any imports from Russia or Belarus.
Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland says Canada is removing those countries’ “most favored nation” status as a trading partner, which is normally extended to fellow World Trade Organization member countries.
Freeland said Thursday that Canada is encouraging its allies to take the same step.
Russia and Belarus join North Korea in being downgraded for trade.
Zelensky says 16,000 foreigners have volunteered to fight for Ukraine against Russian invasion — 9:51 a.m.
By The Washington Post
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Thursday said that 16,000 foreigners have volunteered to fight for Ukraine against the Russian invasion.
In an emotional video posted to his Telegram channel, Zelensky referred to the “international legion” of 16,000 foreign volunteers he has sought to “join the defense of Ukraine, Europe and the world.” The country earlier this week temporarily lifted visa requirements for foreign volunteers who wish to enter the country and join the fight against Russian forces.
“We have nothing to lose but our own freedom,” Zelensky said, noting that Ukraine’s international allies are sending the country’s arms supplies each day.
Wheat, corn prices surge amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — 9:37 a.m.
By The Associated Press
Consumers facing higher prices for products made with corn and wheat could be in for more pain as global supplies grow tighter because of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Wheat prices jumped 37 percent and corn prices jumped 21 percent so far in 2022 after rising more than 20 percent throughout all of 2021. Persistently rising inflation has already prompted companies like Kellogg and General Mills to raise prices and pass the costs off to consumers and that pattern may worsen with the current crisis.
Ukraine has long been considered a “bread basket” because of its rich soil. The nation accounts for 12 percent of the world’s total wheat exports, according to the US Department of Agriculture. It is also estimated to supply 16 percent of the world’s corn exports this year. Food producers in the US get most of their raw materials domestically, but any drop in production and exports from Ukraine would reverberate globally through price increases. “The US is not a key trading partner with Russia/Ukraine but is nonetheless likely to feel the shock from other major countries that do rely on Russia/Ukraine,” said CFRA analyst Arun Sundaram, in a note to investors.
Russia, while a key player in the energy industry, also plays a key role in the global agricultural market with ingredients for fertilizer. It is facing increasingly restrictive sanctions and penalties as the war persists and that could stymie the flow of those ingredients, such as potash, or Russia could respond by cutting off supplies. “Any cutoff from them in those areas would be quite damaging to western economies,” said Barry Bannister, chief equity strategist at Stifel. “That would be very destabilizing; the risk really isn’t energy it’s agriculture if this is dragged out.”
Inflation is already at a four-decade high in the US, partly driven by rising food costs. Food producers have signaled they are prepared to raise prices further if inflation persists. Consumers have so far been willing to pay higher prices, but additional price increases raise more concerns that people will eventually feel too squeezed and pullback spending. Tom Vilsack, US secretary of agriculture, has said that American wheat farmers will boost production to help offset the global impact of choked off exports from Ukraine. Analysts expect that tighter supplies and high demand will likely benefit some of the bigger agribusinesses, including Archer-Daniels Midland and Bunge. Those companies have already been benefiting from a boost in global demand for key products, including wheat, corn and soybeans.
Estonian ship reportedly sinks after encountering mine off Odessa — 9:16 a.m.
By The Associated Press
A Panama-flagged cargo vessel belonging to an Estonian shipping company has reportedly driven into a mine and sank off the Ukrainian port city of Odessa.
The m/v Helt was built in 1985 and is owned by the VISTA Shipping Agency AS, Estonian media outlets reported Thursday, adding that two crew members have been rescued, while four others are missing.
Ukrainian authorities said earlier this week that Russian sailors had captured the ship. Estonian Foreign Minister Eva-Maria Liimets said Estonian officials are currently dealing with the issue and the ministry would give details on the incident as soon as possible.
Ukraine calls on citizenry to use guerrilla warfare against Russian troops — 9:13 a.m.
By The Associated Press
As Russian forces advance on strategic points in southern Ukraine, Ukrainian authorities on Thursday called on compatriots to launch a guerrilla war against Russian forces.
In a video message posted online, Ukrainian presidential aide Oleksiy Arestovich urged men to cut down trees and destroy rear columns of Russian troops. “We urge people to begin providing total popular resistance to the enemy in the occupied territories,” Arestovich said. “The weak side of the Russian army is the rear - if we burn them now and block the rear, the war will stop in a matter of days,” he said.
Arestovich said that such tactics are already being used in Konotop in northeast Ukraine and Melitopol near the Azov Sea, which were captured by Russian troops. He called on the civilian population to build barricades in cities, hold rallies with Ukrainian flags, and create online networking groups. “Total resistance ... this is our Ukrainian trump card and this is what we can do best in the world,” Arestovich said, recalling guerrilla actions in Nazi-occupied Ukraine during World War II.
Russian forces seize key port as they seek to cut off Ukraine from its coastline — 9:06 a.m.
By The Associated Press
Russian forces have seized a strategic Ukrainian seaport and besieged another as part of efforts to cut the country off from its coastline, even as Moscow said Thursday it was ready for talks to end the fighting that has sent more than 1 million people fleeing over Ukraine’s borders.
The Russian military said it had control of Kherson, and local Ukrainian officials confirmed that forces have taken over local government headquarters in the Black Sea port of 280,000, making it the first major city to fall since the invasion began a week ago.
Biden administration requests $32.5 billion in Ukraine aid and coronavirus funds as spending talks continue — 6:58 a.m.
By The Washington Post
The Biden administration is asking Congress to approve $32.5 billion to bolster Ukraine against Russian aggression and shore up the United States in the battle against the coronavirus.
The official request arrives as Democrats and Republicans continue to tussle over a broader aid package that many lawmakers hope to append to a still-forming deal to fund the government. Absent imminent action, critical federal agencies and programs are set to run out of money after March 11, imperiling Washington’s ability to respond to both crises in full.
To aid Ukraine, the Biden administration is calling on lawmakers to approve $10 billion, hoping to address the emerging humanitarian crisis in the country in the face of a worsening Russian onslaught. The figure also includes assistance to bolster Ukraine’s defenses, protect its electrical grid from disruption, and further assist other European allies, according to two people familiar with the matter who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe the plans.
France seizes Russian oligarch-linked yacht — 6:29 a.m.
By The Associated Press
French authorities say they have seized a yacht linked to Igor Sechin, an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, as part of European Union sanctions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The French Finance Ministry said in a statement Thursday that customs authorities carried out an inspection of the yacht Amore Vero in the Mediterranean resort of La Ciotat.
The boat arrived in La Ciotat on Jan. 3 for repairs and was slated to stay until April 1. When French customs officers arrived to inspect the yacht, its crew was preparing an urgent departure, even though the repair work wasn’t finished, the statement said. The boat was seized to prevent its departure.
It says the boat is owned by a company that lists Sechin as its primary shareholder. Sechin runs Russian oil giant Rosneft.
Hungary will not allow any arms shipments bound for neighboring Ukraine to cross its territory — 6:27 a.m.
By The Associated Press
Hungary’s government is insisting it will not allow any arms shipments bound for neighboring Ukraine to cross its territory, as the European Union country receives tens of thousands of refugees from the conflict and frets about the reliability of its energy links to Moscow.
A large Hungarian ethnic minority, around 150,000 people, lives in the western Ukrainian region of Transcarpathia, just across the border.
The prime minister’s chief of staff, Gergely Gulyas, says allowing weapons into Ukraine would endanger that minority.
Gulyas said Thursday that some 120,000 refugees fleeing the conflict have crossed into Hungary so far.
Hungary has agreed to all EU sanctions imposed on Russia, Gulyas said. But he argued against allowing sanctions to affect Hungary’s energy sector, which relies heavily on Russian natural gas.
Gulyas also said that Hungary will not pull out of the planned Russian-backed expansion of Hungary’s only nuclear power plant, which will be financed primarily by a Russian state bank.
Katapult magazine, a quarterly based in the northeast German town of Greifswald, has made a name for itself in recent years explaining complex social issues with easy-to-understand graphics and charts that are widely shared on social media. It claims to have 150,000 print subscribers.
What people are donating to Ukraine and its refugees: Crypto, ammo, pet food and cash — 5:57 a.m.
By The Washington Post
From ordinary citizens to big-name corporations and Hollywood stars, people around the world are pledging millions of dollars to help Ukraine defend itself from Russia’s invasion, alongside much-needed medical supplies, military equipment and even pet food.
Those donations come as international agencies and individual governments have already rolled out aid plans. The World Health Organization has $3.5 million in emergency funding; the U.S. government is hoping to deploy $6.4 billion in emergency aid to the region; and the European Commission signed off on a $100 million aid package.
Netflix co-founder and co-chief executive Reed Hastings on Wednesday announced a $1 million donation to Razom, a Ukrainian nonprofit that has sought to strengthen democracy in its country. It is now focused on procuring disposable resuscitators, tourniquets and other emergency supplies needed to treat war injuries, according to its website.
China denies asking Russia not to invade until post-Olympics — 5:48 a.m.
By The Associated Press
BEIJING — China is denouncing a report that it asked Russia to delay invading Ukraine until after the Beijing Winter Olympics as “fake news” and a “very despicable” attempt to divert attention and shift blame over the conflict.
“The New York Times report is purely fake news, and such behaviors of diverting attentions and shifting blames are very despicable,” Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said Thursday.
The Times article cited a “Western intelligence report” considered credible by officials, which indicated that “senior Chinese officials had some level of direct knowledge about Russia’s war plans or intentions before the invasion started last week,” the Times wrote.
China also commented on its decision to abstain in Wednesday’s U.N. General Assembly emergency session vote to demand an immediate halt to Moscow’s attack on Ukraine and the withdrawal of all Russian troops.
“Regrettably, the draft resolution submitted to the General Assembly emergency special session for vote had not undergone full consultations with the whole membership, nor does it take into consideration the history and the complexity of the current crisis,” Wang said.
Russia aims to destroy Ukraine’s military — 5:43 a.m.
By The Associated Press
Russia’s foreign minister says Moscow is ready for peace talks but will press its effort to destroy Ukraine’s military infrastructure, which the Kremlin claims is threatening Russia.
Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Thursday that the Russian delegation to the talks submitted its demands to Ukrainian negotiators earlier this week and is now waiting for Kyiv’s response in a meeting set for Thursday.
Lavrov said that Russia will insist on provisions that Ukraine will never again represent a military threat to Russia. He said it will be up to Ukrainians to choose what government they should have.
Lavrov voiced regret for civilian casualties during the Russian action in Ukraine, which started last week, and insisted that the Russian military is using only precision weapons against military targets.
He tacitly acknowledged that some Russian strikes could have killed civilians, saying that “any military action is fraught with casualties, and not just among the military but also civilians.”
Norway, Germany provide missiles to Ukraine — 4:40 a.m.
By The Associated Press
A Hercules C130 transport aircraft with some 2,000 anti-tank missiles for Ukraine has taken off from Norway.
The weapons are to help Ukrainian forces resist Russia’s invasion, which began last week.
Norway’s national news agency NTB said the shipment was being sent from Oslo on Thursday to a third country before being transported to Ukraine.
Also Thursday, Germany’s economy ministry approved sending 2,700 anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine, the dpa news agency said.
The agency quoted unnamed Economy Ministry officials saying the weapons are Soviet-made, shoulder-fired Strela surface-to-air missiles left over from East German army supplies.
Germany reversed its previous refusal to provide Ukraine with lethal weapons last week, following Russia’s attack.
Russia exposure wipes $100 billion from European stocks — 4:27 a.m.
By Bloomberg
European stocks with business exposure to Russia have lost more than $100 billion in market value since the war risks surged. Still, with the impact of sanctions on Moscow remaining uncertain, few are ready to snap them up just yet.
“Nobody knows where this ends and we are in a maximum uncertainty environment that requires a rethinking for most investors,” said Peter Garnry, head of equity strategy at Saxo Bank AS.
Russia’s war spurs corporate exodus, exposes business risks — 4:07 a.m.
By The Associated Press
Auto shipments stopped, beer stopped flowing, cargo ships dropped port calls and oil companies cut their pipelines.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has thrown business plans into disarray and forced a growing number of the world’s best known brands — from Apple to Ford and BP — to pull out of a country that’s become a global outcast as companies seek to maintain their reputations and live up to corporate responsibility standards.
Investors were drawn to Russia in search of lucrative profits they thought were worth the geopolitical risks. That calculation has changed after Russian President Vladimir Putin launched war in Europe, triggering a wave of global sanctions and export restrictions that have thrown its economy into turmoil and disrupted the operations of multinational corporations there.
Germany has approved sending anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine — 3:58 a.m.
By The Associated Press
The German news agency DPA reported that Germany has approved sending 2,700 anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine.
The report quoted unnamed Economy Ministry officials on Thursday saying the weapons are Soviet-made, shoulder-fired Strela surface-to-air missiles left over from East German army supplies.
Germany reversed its previous refusal to provide Ukraine with lethal weapons last week following Russia’s invasion.
Berlin has already authorized sending 1,000 anti-tank weapons and 500 Stinger surface-to-air missiles to Ukraine.
UN says at least 227 civilians dead in Ukraine — 3:52 a.m.
By The Associated Press
The UN human rights office says 227 civilians have been killed and another 525 injured in its latest count of the toll in Ukraine in the wake of Russia’s military invasion that began a week ago.
The office of the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights says the tally eclipses the entire civilian casualty count from the war in eastern Ukraine between pro-Russian separatists and Ukrainian forces in 2014 — which left 136 dead and 577 injured.
The rights office admits that the figures so far are a vast undercount. It uses a strict methodology and counts only confirmed casualties. Ukrainian officials have presented far higher numbers.
The rights office said in a statement late Wednesday that “real figures are considerably higher, especially in government-controlled territory and especially in recent days, as the receipt of information from some locations where intensive hostilities have been going on was delayed and many reports were still pending corroboration.”
Most of the casualties were caused by the use of explosive weapons with a wide impact area, including shelling from heavy artillery and multi-launch rocket systems, and airstrikes, the rights office said.
EU moves toward granting temporary protection to refugees — 3:19 a.m.
By The Associated Press
With close to a million refugees already fleeing Ukraine for the eastern nations of the European Union, the bloc is bracing for the arrival of many more as the Russian invasion continues.
EU Commissioner Ylva Johansson said Thursday ahead of a special meeting of justice and home affairs ministers that “we have to be prepared for millions of refugees to come to the European Union.”
The bloc is already moving toward granting temporary protection to those fleeing war, seeking to give temporary residence permits to refugees and allow them rights to education and work in the 27-nation bloc.
The EU Commission has already promised at least 500 million euros ($560 million) in humanitarian aid for the refugees. Johansson said the bloc will need funding and equipment.
Neutral Finland, Sweden warm to idea of NATO membership — 3:02 a.m.
By The Associated Press
Delegations from Russia and Ukraine are expected to hold talks in Belarus on Thursday, a second round of face-to-face discussions since the Russian invasion eight days ago.
In a video address to the nation early Thursday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called on Ukrainians to keep up their resistance, but didn’t comment on whether the Russians have seized any cities.
“They will have no peace here,” Zelensky said, calling on the Russian soldiers to “go home” and describing them as “confused children who have been used.”
His comments come as Russia acknowledged for the first time since the start of the invasion that nearly 500 Russian troops have been killed in the fighting and around 1,600 wounded. Ukraine has not released a similar casualty figure for its armed forces.
Russia-Ukraine War: What to know on Day 8 of Russian assault — 3:01 a.m.
By The Associated Press
Delegations from Russia and Ukraine are expected to hold talks in Belarus on Thursday, a second round of face-to-face discussions since the Russian invasion eight days ago.
In a video address to the nation early Thursday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called on Ukrainians to keep up their resistance, but didn’t comment on whether the Russians have seized any cities.
“They will have no peace here,” Zelenskyy said, calling on the Russian soldiers to “go home” and describing them as “confused children who have been used.”
His comments come as Russia acknowledged for the first time since the start of the invasion that nearly 500 Russian troops have been killed in the fighting and around 1,600 wounded. Ukraine has not released a similar casualty figure for its armed forces.
Fitch downgrades Russia’s credit rating — 2:50 a.m.
By The Associated Press
Fitch Ratings has downgraded Russia’s credit rating, citing a “severe shock” to fundamental conditions due to its invasion of Ukraine.
Fitch said the war has raised risks to financial stability and could undermine Russia’s ability to service its government debt. It said that, in turn, will weaken the country’s finances and slow its economy, further raising geopolitical risks and uncertainty.
Among other factors, the ratings agency noted sanctions imposed by Western countries that are limiting access to foreign currency needed to repay debt and purchase imports and increased uncertainty over Russia’s willingness to pay such debts.
Ukraine Ministry of Defense says Russian column has made ‘little discernible progress’ — 2:30 a.m.
By The Associated Press
Britain’s Ministry of Defense says that a Russian military column heading for Kyiv has made “little discernible progress” over the past three days and remains over 30 kilometers (19 miles) from the center of the city.
The column has been delayed by Ukrainian resistance, mechanical breakdowns and congestion, the ministry said in its daily intelligence briefing Thursday.
Despite heavy Russian shelling, the cities of Kharkiv, Chernihiv and Mariupol remain in Ukrainian hands, the department said. Some Russian forces have entered the city of Kherson, but the military situation remains unclear, it added.
The ministry also noted that Russia has been forced to admit that 498 of its soldiers have been killed in Ukraine and another 1,597 have been wounded. The actual number of those killed and wounded will almost certainly be considerably higher and will continue to rise, it said.
Russian athletes out of Paralympics in stunning about-face — 2:17 a.m.
By The Associated Press
In a stunning reversal, Russian and Belarusian athletes have been banned from the Winter Paralympic Games for their countries’ roles in the war in Ukraine, the International Paralympic Committee said Thursday in Beijing.
The about-face comes less than 24 hours after the IPC on Wednesday announced it would allow Russian and Belarusian athletes to compete when the Games open on Friday, but only as neutral athletes with colors, flags and other national symbols removed.
The IPC received immediate criticism for its initial decision. It was termed a betrayal that sent the wrong message to Russia’s leadership. The IPC also said it was evident that many athletes would refuse to compete against Russians or Belarusians, creating chaos for the Paralympics and damaging the reputation.
Zelensky says Russian troops are ‘confused children’ who don’t know why they are in Ukraine — 1:12 a.m.
By The New York Times
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine early Thursday portrayed invading Russian troops as directionless and asserted that the invasion plans of Russian President Vladimir Putin had been “ruined,” even as the first major Ukrainian city fell in the war.
“Our soldiers, our border guards, our territorial defense, even simple farmers are capturing Russian soldiers every day, and all of them are saying the same thing: They don’t know why they are here,’’ Zelenskyy said in a speech posted on his Facebook page. “These are not warriors of a superpower. These are confused children who have been used.”
Since the invasion started a week ago, Zelenskyy has issued a call to arms with daily speeches and social-media comments. His willingness to fight — he has said he’s Russia’s target No. 1 — against a superior army has made him something of a folk hero for many people who oppose Russian invasion. He received a standing ovation Tuesday when he addressed the European Parliament on a video link. His urging of a civilian resistance has echoes of Winston Churchill’s defiance of Nazi Germany.
“Even though there are 10 times more of them, the enemy’s morale is getting lower and lower,” Zelenskyy said. “We are a people who have ruined our enemy’s plans in one week.”
Vaccine manufacturer braces for complications — 12:10 a.m.
By The Associated Press
A South Korean pharmaceutical company manufacturing Russia’s COVID-19 vaccine says it’s bracing for business complications as the U.S.-led West escalates sanctions against Russia over the invasion of Ukraine.
Recently expanded U.S. sanctions include targeted measures against the Russian Direct Investment Fund, a sovereign wealth fund run by a close ally of President Vladmir Putin that globally markets the Sputnik vaccines.
Kim Gi-young, an official from Seoul-based GL Rapha, said the sanctions won’t directly impede its production of the shots as the measures aren’t aimed at essential medical supplies.
However, the company is concerned about potential problems rising from the financial side as South Korea joins the United States and many European countries in a move to cut off key Russian banks from global payment systems.
March 2, 2022
Ukrainian passport holders can seek UAE visas — 11:53 p.m.
By The Associated Press
The United Arab Emirates says Ukrainian passport holders continue to be eligible for visas on arrival to the Gulf state.
The UAE’s Foreign Ministry statement on Thursday came in response to media coverage quoting Ukraine’s Embassy in the UAE saying that the Gulf country is reimposing visa requirements on Ukrainians and suspending an agreement for visa-free travel between the two countries.
The energy-rich UAE, which relies on Russian and Ukrainian wheat exports, is home to some 15,000 Ukrainian residents among its roughly 8 million foreign residents and 1 million Emirati citizens. Before the coronavirus pandemic, around a quarter-million Ukrainian tourists visited the UAE.
The UAE, like other Gulf Arab states, does not recognize individuals fleeing war and has not permitted refugees from Syria, Iraq and other wars to seek asylum or seek resettlement.
The UAE, which is home to Abu Dhabi and Dubai, abstained in a U.N. Security Council vote late last week condemning Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. It is also chair of the Security Council.
Russian casualties arrive at Belarus hospital — 11:52 p.m.
By The Associated Press
A string of seven bus-size Russian military ambulances — their windows blocked with gray shades — pulled up to the back entrance of the main hospital about 30 miles (48 kilometers) from the border with Ukraine on Tuesday evening, ferrying casualties from the front.
The convoy was part of what residents and doctors said has in recent days become a steady flow of Russian soldiers wounded in fierce fighting around Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, where a Russian advance has stalled in the face of strong resistance.
A doctor at the hospital — which is in southern Belarus’s Gomel region, a main staging ground for Russia’s offensive — said injured Russian troops began arriving on Monday. “I hope they don’t jail me for sharing this,” she said.
OSCE member dies during Kharkiv shelling — 11:51 p.m.
By The Associated Press
The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe says one of its members died during shelling in the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv.
Maryna Fenina was killed while getting supplies for her family, the group said in a news release Wednesday. Fenina worked with the organization’s monitoring mission in Ukraine.
“In Kharkiv and other cities and towns in Ukraine, missiles, shells and rockets are hitting residential buildings and town centers, killing and injuring innocent civilians — women, men and children alike,” it said.
The organization’s chairperson, Polish Foreign Minister Zbigniew Rau, and Secretary General Helga Maria Schmid extended their condolences.
“Our deepest condolences and sympathies go to Maryna’s family. Maryna was a valued member of the SMM team, and our colleagues in Ukraine remain in close contact with her family to offer our support,” it said.
The organization launched its Ukraine monitoring mission in 2014 in response to a request from Ukraine’s government and the consent of the group’s 57 participating states. The mission observes and reports on the situation in Ukraine and aims to facilitate dialogue.
US extends technology restrictions to Belarus and Russian oil industry — 10:45 p.m.
By The New York Times
The Biden administration ramped up restrictions on exporting certain technologies to Russia and Belarus on Wednesday, actions it said would degrade the ability to sustain a military campaign against Ukraine.
The new controls will prevent US companies from exporting certain sensitive items that would support defense, aerospace and maritime industries in Belarus, which the administration said had aided Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. That move will extend to Belarus the same restrictions the United States placed on Russia on Feb. 24, preventing items like technology and software from being routed through Belarus to restricted sectors in Russia, the Commerce Department said.
Companies around the world that use US software or technology to manufacture their products also will be barred from sending certain sensitive items to Belarus, while Belarusian military entities will face even tougher limitations on the global goods they can purchase.
European sanctions on Russia will cost Europe, too, early signs show — 10:34 p.m.
By The Washington Post
One factor has long underpinned pushback by European governments and business over sanctions on Russia: concern for their own pocketbooks. But in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the continent has seen a rapid about-face and has already begun to feel the effects.
When Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula in 2014 and backed separatists in Ukraine’s east, European business groups were among the most vocal skeptics of the E.U. sanctions that followed. Just weeks ago, a major German business association was celebrating a “gratifying” surge in trade with Russia, while Italian CEOs met virtually with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss stronger ties even as the crisis was heating up.
In a matter of days, the tone has changed. Since the invasion began last week, Russia, facing a flurry of sanctions, has become an economic pariah. Even Putin’s defenders among European businesses, especially in Italy and Germany, have rallied behind what France’s finance minister this week called an “all-out economic and financial war” against Russia, the European Union’s fifth-biggest trading partner.
Zelensky calls on Ukrainians to keep up resistance — 9:52 p.m.
By The Associated Press
In a video address to the nation early Thursday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky gave an upbeat assessment of the war and called on Ukrainians to keep up the resistance.
“We are a people who in a week have destroyed the plans of the enemy,” he said. “They will have no peace here. They will have no food. They will have here not one quiet moment.”
Zelensky didn’t comment on whether the Russians have seized several cities, including Kherson.
“If they went somewhere, then only temporarily. We’ll drive them out,” he said.
He said the fighting is taking a toll on the morale of Russian soldiers, who “go into grocery stores and try to find something to eat.”
“These are not warriors of a superpower,” he said. “These are confused children who have been used.”
He said the Russian death toll has reached about 9,000.
“Ukraine doesn’t want to be covered in bodies of soldiers,” he said. “Go home.”
Biden hails UN vote against Moscow — 9:51 p.m.
By The Associated Press
President Biden is hailing Wednesday’s vote by the United Nations General Assembly demanding an immediate halt to Moscow’s attack on Ukraine and the withdrawal of all Russian troops, saying it “demonstrates the extent of global outrage at Russia’s horrific assault on a sovereign neighbor.”
In a statement Wednesday evening, Biden said the U.N. vote recognizes that Russian President Vladimir Putin is “attacking the very foundations of global peace and security — and everything the United Nations stands for.”
The vote on the “Aggression against Ukraine” resolution was 141-5, with 35 abstentions.
Echoing his State of the Union address Tuesday, Biden said: “Together, we must — and we will — hold Russia accountable for its actions. We will demonstrate that freedom always triumphs over tyranny.”
Zelensky says fighting is still occurring around Kherson — 9:50 p.m.
By The Associated Press
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s office says fighting is still occurring around the port city of Kherson, which Russian officials have said is in their “complete control.”
Zelensky’s office told The Associated Press that it could not comment on the situation there while the battle was still being waged.
But the mayor of Kherson, Igor Kolykhaev, said Russian soldiers were in the city and came to the city administration building. He said he asked them not to shoot civilians and to allow them to gather up the bodies from the streets.
“I simply asked them not to shoot at people,” Mayor Igor Kolykhaev said in a statement. “We don’t have any Ukrainian forces in the city, only civilians and people here who want to LIVE.”
Kherson, a city of 300,000, is strategically located on the banks of the Dnieper River near where it flows into the Black Sea. If Russian troops take the city, they could unblock a water canal and restore water supplies to the Crimean Peninsula.
The battle in the Kherson region began last Thursday, the first day of the invasion, and by the next day the Russian forces were able to take a bridge that connects the city with territory on the western bank.
US troops rush to Europe amid war in Ukraine — 9:37 p.m.
By The Associated Press
About 3,800 troops based at Fort Stewart in southeast Georgia have been ordered to deploy quickly and bolster U.S. forces in Europe after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
“It’s been very hectic and stressful, but overall it’s worked out,” Army Staff Sgt. Ricora Jackson said Wednesday as she waited with dozens of fellow soldiers to board a chartered flight at Hunter Army Airfield in Savannah. The soldiers are from the 1st Armored Brigade of the Army’s 3rd Infantry Division.
In all, the Pentagon has ordered about 12,000 service members from various U.S. bases to Europe, with a couple of thousand more already stationed abroad shifting to other European countries.
The soldiers’ mission overseas is to train alongside military units of NATO allies in a display of force aimed at deterring further aggression by Russia.
“I’m a little nervous, but it’s OK,” said Jackson, a 22-year-old tank gunner from Pensacola, Florida.
Asked what was making her nervous, she replied: “Just about the unknown.”
Maj. Gen. Charles Costanza, the 3rd Infantry’s commander, said soldiers and their families were told to expect the deployment to last six months, though it could be extended or shortened depending on developments in Ukraine. “There is no intent to have any U.S. service member fight in Ukraine,” Costanza said. “And they know that.”
ICC opens investigation into possible war crimes in Ukraine — 9:35 p.m.
By The Associated Press
The International Criminal Court’s prosecutor opened an investigation Wednesday into possible war crimes, crimes against humanity or genocide in Ukraine dating back to 2013, but also covering the conflict sparked by Russia’s invasion.
Prosecutor Karim Khan said he launched the probe after 39 of the court’s member states requested an investigation, a process known as a referral.
“These referrals enable my Office to proceed with opening an investigation into the Situation in Ukraine from 21 November 2013 onwards, thereby encompassing within its scope any past and present allegations of war crimes, crimes against humanity or genocide committed on any part of the territory of Ukraine by any person,” Khan said in a statement.
“Our work in the collection of evidence has now commenced,” he added.
Ukraine’s most vulnerable among those fleeing Russia’s war — 9:33 p.m.
By The Associated Press
Some of the 1 million people who have fled Russia’s devastating war in Ukraine count among society’s most vulnerable, unable to decide on their own to flee and needing careful assistance to make the journey to safety.
In the Hungarian town of Zahony on Wednesday, more than 200 Ukrainians with disabilities — residents of two care homes in Ukraine’s capital of Kyiv — disembarked into the cold wind on a train station platform after an arduous escape from the violence gripping Ukraine.
The refugees, many of them children, have serious mental and physical disabilities, and were evacuated from their care facilities once the Russian assault on the capital intensified.
4 million people, or more, may leave Ukraine, according to UN estimate — 9:24 p.m.
By The Associated Press
The U.N. refugee agency said Thursday that 1 million people have now fled Ukraine since Russia’s invasion less than a week ago, an exodus without precedent in this century for its speed.
The tally from the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees amounts to more than 2% of Ukraine’s population — which the World Bank counted at 44 million at the end of 2020 — on the move across borders in just seven days. The agency cautions that the outflows are far from finished: It has predicted that as many as 4 million people could eventually leave Ukraine, and even that projection could be revised upward.
In an email, UNHCR spokeswoman Joung-ah Ghedini-Williams wrote, “Our data indicates we passed the 1M mark” as of midnight in central Europe, based on counts collected by national authorities.
On Twitter, U.N. High Commissioner Filippo Grandi wrote, “In just seven days we have witnessed the exodus of one million refugees from Ukraine to neighboring countries.”
Putin’s war to bring Ukraine to heel unites Eastern Europe in alarm — 8:20 p.m.
By The New York Times
Scattered around the forest in Poland like archaeological ruins, the crumbling concrete bunkers for decades stored Soviet nuclear warheads. Today, they store only memories — deeply painful for Poland, joyous for the Kremlin — of the vanished empire that President Vladimir Putin wants to rebuild, starting with his war in Ukraine.
“Nobody here trusted the Russians before and we certainly don’t trust them now,” said Mieczyslaw Zuk, a former Polish soldier who oversees the once top-secret nuclear site. The bunkers were abandoned by the Soviet military in 1990 as Moscow’s hegemony over East and Central Europe unraveled in what Putin has described as “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century.”
Now Eastern European countries fear a catastrophe of their own could be in the making, as Putin seeks to turn back the clock and reclaim Russia’s lost sphere of influence, perilously close to their frontiers. Even leaders in the region who have long supported Putin are sounding the alarm.
‘We are on our side’: Across Asia, a mixed reaction to Ukraine war — 7:49 p.m.
By The New York Times
Much of the world has united against Russia in the aftermath of its incursion into Ukraine. Envoys have walked out of meetings rather than listen to a top Russian diplomat speak. Western nations have been in near lockstep on international sanctions. Bartenders are banning Russian vodka.
In Asia, the reaction has been far more mixed.
Generals in Myanmar have called Russia’s actions “the right thing to do.” India abstained from a UN Security Council resolution to condemn the attack. China has refused to call the assault on Ukraine an invasion. And in Vietnam, President Vladimir Putin of Russia is being affectionately referred to as “Uncle Putin.”
US House ‘staunchly, proudly’ passes resolution for Ukraine — 6:38 p.m.
By The Associated Press
The U.S House has overwhelmingly approved a resolution “steadfastly, staunchly, proudly and fervently” in support of Ukraine.
Lawmakers said Wednesday that history was watching the way the world responds as Ukrainians fight to save their Western-style democracy from invasion by Russia. With intensifying urgency, many in Congress said more must be done to help Ukraine and cut off Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ability to wage war.
In the Senate, Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., was also introducing a resolution that would back Ukraine’s claim in international court that Putin and his “cronies” have committed war crimes.
He urged his colleague to provide a unanimous vote to overwhelmingly show “whether or not we stood up and stood out to protect freedom.”
The resolve comes after the blue and yellow colors of the Ukraine flag were on view in the House chamber for President Joe Biden’s State of the Union speech Tuesday night, a display of bipartisan common ground for the often divided Congress.
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News
Ukraine: Germany's Scholz urges Putin to end hostilities
During a one-hour conversation, the German chancellor called on Russia's president to immediately halt military action in Ukraine. Putin said Russia was "open" to talks with Kyiv if all his demands were met.
Scholz spoke with Putin on the phone
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Friday urged Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the fighting in Ukraine and open humanitarian corridors.
In an hour-long phone call, Scholz "called on the Russian leadership to immediately cease all hostilities and to allow humanitarian access to the embattled areas," German government spokesman Steffen Hebestreit said in a statement.
The two leaders agreed to hold further talks soon, Hebestreit added.
The call came a day after French officials said France's President Emmanuel Macron had also had also spoken with Putin.
The Kremlin said the call was initiated by the German side.
The Kremlin Rat and his options - Post Link
Nobody knows how Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine will end, but most scenarios range from bad to worse. To grasp them, start by considering what is indubitably the world's most notorious rat.
That's the one Russian President Vladimir Putin claims he once - as a boy in what was then Leningrad - chased down a hallway. Cornered, the rat turned and attacked him.
Why has Putin made sure that this anecdote keeps getting recycled among Russia watchers the world over? The conventional wisdom is that it's yet another of his veiled threats. I'm that rat, except that I have nuclear claws, he implies. So don't corner me.
This vantage point - let's call it the rat's-eye view - must factor in all possible scenarios. If the analysis were about what's good for Russia, the invasion would never have started at all, and could be ended at any time with a negotiated settlement. After all, the attack has only hurt national interests, by isolating the country internationally and impoverishing more of its population. But Russia isn't the relevant actor. The metaphorical rat in the Kremlin is.
By all appearances, Putin is nowadays isolated and in his own mental world. Unlike his Soviet predecessors, he has no politburo around him or other credible checks and balances; he decides alone. And like other current and former tyrants - Saddam Hussein springs to mind - he has reason to worry that his own political failure is less likely to end in a tedious but placid retirement than in something rather more violent and abrupt.
Viewed from the rat's perspective, therefore, there are lots of dead-end hallways around. With that in mind, the scenarios look as follows.
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