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- Oxford professor Andrew Pollard says rich countries have "a moral duty" to share COVID-19 vaccines.
- As these countries come out of lockdown, many low-income countries are still being ravaged by the virus.
- Pollard says it benefits everyone globally if all countries are able to vaccinate their population.
- See more stories on Insider's business page.
Usually, World Immunization Week is a chance for those of us who research vaccines to reinforce the message about their importance in saving lives. From whooping cough to polio, measles to meningitis, vaccines have quietly been saving millions of lives, every year, for decades.
Usually, nobody really cares or takes notice. However, 2021 is different. In this last year, we've heard a lot about public health science, from how diseases take root and are spread, to how new drug therapies - including vaccines - are developed, trialed, and monitored for safety and impact after their rollout. People are aware that COVID-19 vaccines are saving lives - hundreds of thousands globally.
Normally, I'd want to join in celebrating this increased awareness of immunization - outdoors in a group of six or less, of course. But despite our success developing COVID-19 vaccines, we need to confront a hard truth: globally, there aren't enough doses in people's arms. Nor are vaccines being spread widely enough across the world. Over 1 billion doses have been given in a matter of months, but still more than 90% of the world's population haven't been protected.
More vaccines must go where they're needed
Recently, I've watched on in horror at over 2 million new cases of coronavirus in India, with more than 20,000 documented COVID-19 deaths - a figure likely to underestimate the true toll. In Brazil, there have been 400,000 cases and approximately 17,000 deaths; in the WHO European region, 1 million cases and over 20,000 deaths. Numbers so high it's almost impossible to fathom.
While we consider exiting lockdown, in many parts of the world the pandemic rages on. Case numbers have fallen to low levels in the UK, but cumulatively worldwide they are growing higher and higher each week. For much of humanity, this means time is running out.
We are seeing health systems overwhelmed in India, as they have been in Brazil. I look at the news pictures of my Indian medical colleagues and fear for them as they run out of oxygen for sick patients, of whom there are so many that some die on the hospital doorstep.
We must not sit back and watch this unfold. As we reach a point where many high-income countries have vaccinated the most vulnerable in their populations, we have a moral duty to ensure that vaccines are shared, so that the most vulnerable in all societies get vaccinated now. We cannot look back in the future and know we had the power to do more today.
Wider distribution benefits everyone
For the few governments around the world who have the power to share vaccines - such as the US and the UK, who are well on the way to high coverage and have hundreds of millions of further doses ordered - the moral argument for making international donations can be difficult. These governments are, rightly, primarily responsible for their own populations.
However, sharing vaccines is key for our own nations' self-interest. It is needed for our health security, by preventing spread and emergence of new variants, which are more likely to arise when infections are out of control as the coronavirus can mutate when it reproduces. Increasing worldwide vaccine coverage will also help our economy by opening up trade, and allow those politicians who aspire to be global actors to have their day.
And it's not just today we need to worry about. Health systems that are overwhelmed are unable to deliver normal services, meaning that key services, such as childhood immunizations, have been knocked significantly in many parts of the world. Last year there were more measles deaths globally than at any time in the past 20 years: over 200,000 - from one of the most preventable causes of child mortality.
Yes, the global scientific endeavor in vaccine development is astonishing, but we must not be complacent: The pandemic is growing, and the vast majority of people aren't protected, especially in countries where things are currently escalating. We urgently need to get vaccines to these people - to protect them, global health systems, and us.
Andrew Pollard, professor of pediatric infection and immunity, University of Oxford
Ricardo Rubio/Europa Press/Getty Images
- The reopening economy is seeing stronger inflation, which many expect to be temporary, including famous economist Paul Krugman.
- The Nobel laureate told Insider that watching several indices gives a clearer picture than the Fed's top measure.
- Anecdotal evidence and workers' contracts can also catch some price growth missed by other data, he said.
- See more stories on Insider's business page.
As comes the recovery, so does inflation.
The gradual reopening of the US economy is quickly lifting consumer demand as Americans rush to revive their pre-pandemic habits. The surge in spending has already pushed popular gauges of inflation higher, but experts see price growth accelerating further as the recovery continues.
Debates over how inflation trends over the next year split economists into two camps. One group - which includes Republicans and even moderate Democrats like former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers - fears the latest stimulus package and strong demand will spark rampant and dangerous price growth. The other sees higher inflation fading as the economy settles into a new sense of normal.
Nobel prize-winning economist Paul Krugman sits squarely in the latter group, but he told Insider he's still keeping an eye out for a potential inflation shock.
"Both sides are predicting the stuff that we're seeing now," he told Insider. "Anyone who wasn't expecting to see some prices of some things rise as the economy came roaring out of the pandemic wasn't paying attention," he said.
It's too early to say whether either side of the inflation debate is right, he said. Bottlenecks and supply-chain issues are behind some rising inflation gauges, but it remains to be seen whether those effects subside or give way to broad and concerning price growth.
Krugman said he's watching a handful of indicators to determine whether inflation poses a significant risk to the recovery. Core inflation isn't enough, since various bottlenecks could elude the benchmark, he said. Instead, the inflation-metric dashboard maintained by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta gives a more holistic view of nationwide price growth.
Sticky inflation indices, which track a subset of goods and services that change price somewhat rarely, are also worth monitoring, he said. Krugman also highlighted trimmed-mean inflation gauges, which exclude large price swings to more accurately track broad inflation trends.
"The whole question is whether prices that are not changing all the time are being set with expectation of inflation in the future, whether we get this leapfrogging process, which is what makes inflation - once embedded in the economy - harder to get rid of," the economist said.
Krugman also backed the use of some less conventional metrics. Wage contracts and union agreements are less easy to track, but data on companywide pay can reveal whether firms are building the expectation of higher inflation into their compensation, he said.
Getting some qualitative data is also worthwhile, the economist added. Surveys show Americans bracing for stronger inflation as the economy bounces back. Such data and other anecdotes can provide some insights into nationwide price growth that indices miss, Krugman said.
"I'm forcing myself to read the Beige Book these days, because I think, in some ways, it's going to be a better guide than the statistics are," he added, referring to the Federal Reserve's periodic report of current economic conditions.
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Владимир Путин и Биньямин Нетаньяху обсудили ряд тем, среди которых ситуация в Сирии, отношения с Украиной, а также вопросы двухстороннего сотрудничества.
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Александр Лукашенко рассказал, что белорусские ученые смогли создать свою вакцину от коронавируса. По словам президента, препарат отличается от тех, которые закупает Минск.
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- UK to offer under-40s alternative to AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine given rare blood clot concerns CNBC
- Under 40s to be offered alternative to AZ vaccine BBC News
- Germany to offer AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine to all adults | Latest World News | English News WION
- UK regulator says some evidence AstraZeneca clots occur more in women than men Yahoo News
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Calls for independent investigation after at least 25 people were killed in raid on Jacarezinho favela
The United Nations has voiced alarm over a massive police operation in a Brazilian favela that left more than two dozen people dead, and called for an independent investigation.
At least 25 people were killed early on Thursday when police raided Jacarezinho, on Rio de Janeiro’s north side, in an operation police said targeted a gang suspected of recruiting children and teenagers.
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