Russians halt their offensive in Ukraine - GS | OPU: Kyiv and Kharkiv are not currently threatened by the Russian offensive | Reuters's summary: "Russian forces in Ukraine are blasting cities and killing civilians but no longer making progress on the ground, Western countries said."
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Russians halt their offensive in Ukraine - Google Search https://t.co/8VSnUKnYgp https://t.co/pmj0BuLP8I
— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) March 17, 2022
Reuters's summary: "Russian forces in Ukraine are blasting cities and killing civilians but no longer making progress on the ground, Western countries said."
— Anders Åslund (@anders_aslund) March 17, 2022
Радник керівника ОПУ Олексій Арестович переконаний, що найближчим часом наступу російських військ у бік Києва, Харкова, Сум та Чернігова не буде. Він заявив про це на брифінгу в Києві 17 березня, повідомляє кореспондент DW. https://t.co/9Ziq78xKRG
— DW українською (@dw_ukrainian) March 17, 2022
Oleksiy Arestovych, an adviser to the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine (OPU), is convinced that Russian troops will not attack Kyiv, Kharkiv, Sumy and Chernihiv in the near future. He stated this at a briefing in Kyiv on Thursday, March 17, DW correspondent reports.
According to him, during the last day there have been no significant changes in the positions of the Russian troops and the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Arestovych noted that Russian troops are trying to advance "along the Kherson-Mykolayiv line" and are trying to surround Ukrainian troops in the area of the Joint Forces Operation in Donbas from Izyum in Kharkiv region and "cut off Mariupol."
Transition to positional battles
According to the adviser to the head of the OPU, in the area of Kyiv , Kharkiv, Chernihiv and Sumy, Russian troops are fighting positional battles with Ukrainian troops. "The enemy has moved to the defense areas and is taking some tactical steps to improve its position," he added. Arestovich is convinced that "there is no question of any offensive in these areas." "Without a significant supply of reserves, which have nowhere to go, promotion to Kyiv, Kharkiv, Chernihiv and Sumy is impossible," he said.
Read also: Experts have calculated the previous damage to infrastructure from the war in Ukraine
However, as Arestovich noted, the Russian army is resorting to violence against the local population in the settlements around the Ukrainian capital. "Violence against the local population is systematically observed in the cities around Kyiv. If in the past such cases were isolated, now the situation has worsened. The Russian army is deliberately destroying the Ukrainian population. This is genocide. There are hundreds, not even dozens, "he said.
Destruction of the command post
At the same time, Arestovych said that the Ukrainian troops had destroyed the command post of one of the Russian armies the day before. "This is a great achievement. It probably means the destruction of several generals and, consequently, the pause and disorganization of the enemy's hostilities," he suggested.
Read the chronicle of the war in Ukraine on March 17
According to the adviser to the head of the OPU, "the enemy, realizing that he can not win either in the air or on the ground, uses (") the destruction of civilian objects and terror of civilians. "
He also said that the enemy was "significantly depleted", adding that Russia had used 97 battalion tactical groups in Ukraine. "Of these, 15 have been completely destroyed, 18 are incapacitated, and 10 remain that they can still overthrow," he said.
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Zelensky in the Bundestag: "Mr. Scholz, tear down this wall!" (17.03.2022)
The Ukrainian parliament witnessed an unusual scene recently. A group of representatives gathered around the lectern and held up flags of NATO and allied countries for the cameras — a demonstration of gratitude for foreign support for Ukraine in the confrontation with Russia. The flag of the United Kingdom, the Union Jack, featured twice.
It was also on display in the streets of the Ukrainian capital when the British Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, visited Kyiv earlier this month. Ukraine is clearly grateful to the beleaguered Johnson, who is under considerable pressure on the domestic front. His government supplied Ukraine with anti-tank weapons in recent weeks, the British army is training Ukrainian soldiers, and now the British Conservative leader is holding out the prospect of financial support equivalent to 100 million euros to assist Kyiv in the current crisis.
Johnson also discussed another proposal with his partners in Kyiv: a military pact between the UK, Poland, and Ukraine.
Dream of a mini-NATO
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy sees this "little alliance," as he calls it, as a "sign of hope." His foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, set out the reasons why. The main goal of the alliance, he explained, was to consolidate a security belt and strengthen the Baltic–Black Sea axis. This was a reference to the presence of the Polish Navy in the Baltic Sea — already very important for Ukraine — and of British forces in the Black Sea, where they are supporting the Ukrainian forces. "We cannot wait for security and prosperity at some future date, when we become a member of the EU and NATO. We need this now," Kuleba said.
Oleksandr Merezhko, the chair of the Ukrainian parliament's foreign affairs committee, sees Poland and the United Kingdom as Ukraine's most reliable strategic partners at the moment. "Perhaps it is also worth thinking about the creation of a kind of mini-NATO. Which could be viable, not least because the UK is one of the leading countries in Europe, although it's not a member of the EU," Merezhko told DW.
British prime minister Boris Johnson has proposed a military pact between the UK, Poland, and Ukraine
The British press takes a much more skeptical view of the proposed military pact. The left-liberal Guardian newspaper writes that Johnson wants to prove he can "show statesmanship" in the Ukraine crisis as a means of countering criticism at home, from within his own ranks.
However, Hans-Dieter Heumann, a former president of the Federal Academy for Security Policy who now teaches at the University of Bonn, believes the proposed alliance is motivated by more than just domestic politics. "The 'tripartite alliance' is unlikely to become a formal alliance," he told DW. "What we're seeing is an attempt by the British prime minister to prove the UK's claim to be 'Global Britain,' meaning: a global player outside the EU."
Poland sought as a partner
It is no surprise that, along with the British premier, Poland has also got involved. Warsaw is Kyiv's closest ally in NATO and the European Union. The Polish leadership is keen to back Ukraine whenever it can.
Polish president Andrzej Duda is being asked to join in efforts to resolve the crisis in Ukraine
However, the Polish government has also made the limits of the pact very clear. "It is not in our interest to undertake activities on our own. Our strength lies in NATO. If it were necessary to send troops to Ukraine, we will be able to do so, with NATO's agreement," said General Waldemar Skrzypczak, former commander of Poland's land forces and a former deputy minister of defense, in an interview with the Polish Press Agency, PAP.
Skrzypczak also used the interview about the new military pact to criticize Germany's Ukraine policy in no uncertain terms. "Sending 5,000 helmets from Germany to Ukraine has the character of satire. The German stance is baffling."
This assessment is not unproblematic for the German government, as Germany and France, as well as the United Kingdom, are seeking Poland's support in the diplomatic efforts regarding Ukraine. French President Emmanuel Macron, German chancellor Olaf Scholz and Polish president Andrzej Duda met in Berlin earlier this month, seeking to present a united front.
Washington calls the tune
Whether it's the Normandy Format, under which German and French negotiators are currently negotiating with Russia and Ukraine, or the Weimar Triangle, or the new tripartite alliance being promoted by London, European governments are approaching the crisis in several different constellations in an effort to make headway. The security expert Hans-Dieter Heumann doesn't believe the new alliance will play an important role in managing the conflict; the "mini-NATO" some Ukrainian politicians are hoping for appears to be an illusion. Heumann says there will be no new alliances entirely outside NATO, not least because they would weaken the defense alliance, which at the moment is strongly united.
The US government appears to have created new room for negotiation with Russia
At the diplomatic level, Heumann is looking to Washington in particular. The Spanish newspaper El Pais published letters sent by NATO and the US in response to Russia — and if they are indeed authentic, the US government appears to have created new room for negotiation. As a former diplomat, Heumann finds the US government's reply remarkable, and notes that it was sent separately from the NATO letter.
In it, the US accepts for the first time that security should not come at the expense of other states. Until now, NATO has insisted on the principle of the freedom to choose one's allies, specifically: that no state would be prevented from joining NATO, even if it bordered Russia. Moscow, on the other hand, insists on guarantees of its undivided and undiminished security.
Heumann considers the letter from Washington a major step forward. "There are now even concrete proposals on the table for the joint withdrawal of the Russian troops on the border with Ukraine and American infrastructure within Ukraine. Serious negotiations can now begin."
Opportunity for the Normandy Format
At the moment, it looks as if, for the most part, the strategic questions concerning security in Europe will be decided bilaterally by Washington and Moscow. Britain, France, Germany, and Poland will exert their influence through NATO.
There may be opportunities for progress in the Normandy Format talks
However, Heumann believes that the Normandy Format, where negotiators are currently working to find solutions, could achieve progress both for people in Ukraine and on the situation in the separatist areas.
If this forum should subsequently achieve a breakthrough under the leadership of French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, perhaps the German and French flags will be included in the next photo taken in the Ukrainian parliament building. Earlier this month, they were notable for their absence.
Editor's note: This article, which was originally written in German, was first published on February 4, 2022.
“What matters to us is not status, but allies who are really ready to fight alongside us. The invasion of Ukraine has shown that the whole architecture of European security must be reconsidered. We know that Putin can only be stopped by force. NATO does not have that force. In our opinion, this is an organization whose main activity is to organize summits where the generals show that they are cool… So we want to end this war with a new coalition, so powerful that it will be able to stop Russia if it wants to attack someone again," Mykhailo Podolyak, Adviser to the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, said in an interview with the Wiadomości Polish newspaper, Ukrinform reports.
He explained that the basis of the coalition would be fundamentally different from the Budapest Memorandum but would provide a specific condition in line with all the rules of international law. According to the Adviser to the Head of the President’s Office, the document will describe the mechanisms that should be implemented if an attack on Ukraine occurs again. "We want to make sure that we will not be left alone on the battlefield again. The guarantor states will make certain commitments. In the future, this document can be developed and underpin a completely new alliance to ensure security all over Europe," Podolyak added.
He declined to name the states that expressed readiness to join the coalition as talks continue. At the same time, the representative of the President’s Office assured that President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky would present the whole concept when they ended.
In addition, Podolyak noted that the formation of the coalition was one of the key topics of the meeting of the President of Ukraine with Prime Minister of Poland Mateusz Morawiecki, Prime Minister of the Czech Republic Petr Fiala, and Prime Minister of Slovenia Janez Janša in Kyiv on March 15.
Podolyak stressed that Poland's accession to the new union was very important for Ukraine. "Poland is one of Ukraine's best friends today. We are infinitely grateful for the help provided and we believe that Poland and Ukraine should participate together in all negotiations on security in Europe," he said.
On February 24, Russian president Vladimir Putin announced the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine. Russian troops destroy key infrastructure, massively shell residential areas of Ukrainian cities and villages using artillery, multiple launch rocket systems, and ballistic missiles.
Martial law was imposed in Ukraine and general mobilization was announced. Ukraine repels Russian invaders.
The Russian Defense Ministry published documents received from employees of US biological laboratories in Ukraine
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