How precise are the Russian precision strikes? - GAI (Google AI)

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How precise are the Russian precision strikes? - GAI (Google AI)

1.

Russian precision strikes, while often touted as highly accurate, have demonstrated varying levels of precision in actual use. Some Russian missiles, like the Kalibr and Kh-101, have claimed accuracies in the range of a few meters, but evidence suggests discrepancies. For instance, the Kalibr has a stated accuracy of 30 meters, while the Kh-101 ranges from 5 to 50 meters. The Iskander-E missile also has a CEP (Circular Error Probable) of 30 to 70 meters. However, Russian counter-battery fire, which is now emphasizing precision-guided munitions, has shown an evolution towards more precise and lethal tactics. [1, 2, 3]

Elaboration: [1]

• Claimed vs. Actual Accuracy: Russian military claims often highlight high accuracy, but the actual performance of their missiles in the field has been mixed. [1]
• Specific Missiles: [1]
  • Kalibr: A naval cruise missile with a claimed accuracy of 30 meters. [1]
  • Kh-101: An air-launched cruise missile with an accuracy ranging from 5 to 50 meters. [1]
  • Iskander-E: Has a CEP of 30 to 70 meters. [1]
• Impact on Targets: While some strikes have been accurate in hitting the intended target, they haven't always been effective, highlighting the "precision paradox" where accuracy doesn't always translate to desired outcomes. [4]
• Evolution of Counter-Battery Fire: Russian counter-battery fire is shifting away from massed attacks and towards precision-guided munitions, leading to more effective engagements of Ukrainian indirect fire systems. [3]
• Role of Technology: The development of modern missile guidance systems, including those using solid-state ring laser gyros, has contributed to improved accuracy. [5]

Generative AI is experimental.

[1] https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2022/october/lessons-russian-missile-performance-ukraine

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/9K720_Iskander

[3] https://chacr.org.uk/2025/01/23/in-depth-briefing-86-from-mass-to-mass-precision/

[4] https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03071847.2024.2343717

[5] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Missile_guidance

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2. 

Russian precision strikes have a mixed record in terms of accuracy. While Russian military claims suggest high precision, evidence indicates that the accuracy of their missiles varies. Some missiles, like the Kalibr and Kh-101, have stated accuracies in the range of 5 to 70 meters, while others have shown inaccuracies in land attacks. However, their accuracy against ship targets may be better due to terminal sensors. Additionally, Russian tactics are evolving, with an increasing emphasis on precision-guided munitions, which suggests improvements in accuracy over time. [1, 2, 3, 4]

Here's a more detailed look: [1, 1]

• Accuracy Claims vs. Reality: The Russian military claims to have developed missiles with accuracies measured in meters, but evidence suggests this is not always the case. [1, 1]
• Missile Types and Accuracy: [1, 1]
  • Kalibr naval cruise missile: Has a stated accuracy of 30 meters. [1, 1]
  • Kh-101 air-launched cruise missile: Has a stated accuracy of 5 to 50 meters. [1, 1]
  • Iskander-M: Has an accuracy of 5-7 meters with a terminal phase optoelectronic homing system. [2, 2]
  • 9K720: Has a stated accuracy of 1 to 30 meters. [2, 2]
• Evolution of Tactics: Russian military tactics are shifting towards a greater emphasis on precision-guided munitions, suggesting improvements in accuracy over time. [3, 3]
• Impact on Ukrainian Energy Facilities: More accurate and concentrated strikes have inflicted greater damage on Ukrainian energy facilities. [4, 4]
• Effectiveness Beyond Accuracy: While accuracy is important, the effectiveness of a strike can also be influenced by other factors, such as the target's vulnerability and the overall military strategy. [5, 5, 6]

In conclusion, while Russian claims of high precision are not fully supported by evidence, their tactics are evolving towards greater precision, and their strikes are reportedly becoming more effective. [3, 4]

Generative AI is experimental.

[1] https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2022/october/lessons-russian-missile-performance-ukraine

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/9K720_Iskander

[3] https://chacr.org.uk/2025/01/23/in-depth-briefing-86-from-mass-to-mass-precision/

[4] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/special-report-russian-strikes-more-effective-ukraine-exhausts-defenses

[5] https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03071847.2024.2343717

[6] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VpEAtLOgzuQ

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