Ukraine War Plans Leak Prompts Pentagon Investigation - NYT | Pentagon investigates reported leak of top secret Ukraine documents - theguardian.com - Full text articles
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Classified documents detailing secret American and NATO plans have appeared on Twitter and Telegram.
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By Helene Cooper and Eric Schmitt
WASHINGTON — Classified war documents detailing secret American and NATO plans for building up the Ukrainian military ahead of a planned offensive against Russia were posted this week on social media channels, senior Biden administration officials said.
The Pentagon is investigating who may have been behind the leak of the documents, which appeared on Twitter and on Telegram, a platform with more than half a billion users that is widely available in Russia.
Military analysts said the documents appear to have been modified in certain parts from their original format, overstating American estimates of Ukrainian war dead and understating estimates of Russian troops killed.
The modifications could point to an effort of disinformation by Moscow, the analysts said. But the disclosures in the original documents, which appear as photographs of charts of anticipated weapons deliveries, troop and battalion strengths, and other plans, represents a significant breach of American intelligence in the effort to aid Ukraine.
Biden officials were working to get them deleted but had not, as of Thursday evening, succeeded.
“We are aware of the reports of social media posts and the department is reviewing the matter,” said Sabrina Singh, the deputy press secretary at the Pentagon.
The documents do not provide specific battle plans, like how, when, and where Ukraine intends to launch its offensive, which American officials say is likely coming in the next month or so. And because the documents are five weeks old, they offer a snapshot of time — the American and Ukrainian view, as of March 1, of what Ukrainian troops might need for the campaign.
To the trained eye of a Russian war planner, field general or intelligence analyst, however, the documents no doubt offer many tantalizing clues and insights. The documents mention, for instance, the expenditure rate of HIMARS — American-supplied high mobility artillery rocket systems, which can launch attacks against targets like ammunition dumps, infrastructure and concentrations of troops, from a distance. The Pentagon has not said publicly how fast Ukrainian troops are using the HIMARS munitions; the documents do.
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- Zelensky in Poland: On his first official visit to Poland, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine won strong backing from Polish leaders for his country’s rapid entry into NATO and signed a deal paving the way for the joint production of arms and ammunition.
- Finland’s Entry to NATO: The Nordic country officially became the military alliance’s 31st member, in what amounts to a strategic defeat for President Vladimir Putin of Russia.
- Drone Warfare: Using aerial drones to spot the enemy and direct artillery fire has become a staple of war for Ukraine and Russia, especially in the fiercely contested city of Bakhmut.
Analysts said on Friday it could be difficult to assess the impact of the documents’ disclosure on the frontline fighting now and in the coming months. Russia’s own recent offensive has struggled to make gains in eastern Ukraine, and Western analysts debate whether the Russian military, after suffering staggering casualties, is capable of mounting another or resisting a Ukrainian attack.
It was unclear how the documents ended up on social media. But pro-Russian government channels have been sharing and circulating the briefing slides, military analysts said.
The analysts warned that documents released by Russian sources could be selectively altered to present the Kremlin’s disinformation.
“Whether these documents are authentic or not, people should take care with anything released by Russian sources,” said Michael Kofman, the director of Russian studies at CNA, a research institute in Arlington, Va.
For example, one of the slides said 16,000 to 17,500 Russian soldiers had been killed while Ukraine had suffered as many as 71,500 troop deaths. The Pentagon and other analysts have estimated that Russia has suffered far more casualties, with closer to 200,000 killed and injured, while Ukraine has had more than 100,000 killed and injured.
Nonetheless, analysts said parts of the documents appeared authentic and would provide Russia with valuable information such as the timetables for the delivery of weapons and troops, Ukrainian troop buildup numbers and other military details.
A document labeled “top secret” offers the “Status of the Conflict as of 1 Mar.” On that day, Ukrainian officials were at an American base in Weisbaden, Germany, for war game sessions, and a day later, Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Gen. Christopher Cavoli, the supreme allied commander for Europe, visited the sessions.
Another document includes columns that list Ukrainian troop units, equipment and training, with schedules for January through April. The document contains a summary of 12 combat brigades that are being assembled, with nine of them apparently being trained and supplied by the United States and other NATO allies. Of those nine brigades, the documents said that six would be ready by March 31 and the rest by April 30. A Ukrainian brigade has about 4,000 to 5,000 soldiers, analysts said.
The document said that equipment delivery times would impact training and readiness in order to meet the timeline. Total equipment needed for nine brigades, the document said, was more than 250 tanks and more than 350 mechanized vehicles.
That the documents could be posted on a widely dispersed social media channel, and presumably get into the hands of Russian officials, is a big coup for Moscow at a time when Russia had appeared to be trailing the United States in intelligence gathering in Ukraine.
The leak is the first Russian intelligence breakthrough that has been made public since the war began. Throughout the war, the United States has provided Ukraine with information on command posts, ammunition depots and other key nodes in the Russian military lines. Such real-time intelligence has allowed the Ukrainians to target Russian forces, kill senior generals and force ammunition supplies to be moved farther from the Russian front lines, though U.S. officials say Ukraine has played the decisive role in planning and execution of those strikes.
But early on during the war, Ukrainian officials were hesitant about sharing their battle plans with the United States, for fear of leaks, American and European officials said. As recently as last summer, American intelligence officials said they often had a better understanding of Russia’s military plans than of Ukraine’s.
Concerned that sharing their operation plans could also highlight weaknesses and discourage continued American support, the Ukrainians were closely guarding them even as American intelligence was gathering precise details on what the Kremlin was ordering and Russian commanders were planning.
The intelligence sharing between Ukraine and the United States loosened up considerably last fall, and the two countries have been working closely on options for a Ukrainian offensive.
But an intelligence leak of this sort, posted on social media and available around the world, is bound to harm intelligence sharing between Ukraine and the United States.
Thomas Gibbons-Neff contributed reporting.
The Pentagon is investigating a reported security breach that saw classified war documents detailing secret American and Nato plans for supplying aid to Ukraine before its prospective offensive against Russia leaked to social media platforms, the New York Times reported.
The top secret documents were spread on Twitter and Telegram, and reportedly contain charts and details about anticipated weapons deliveries, battalion strengths and other sensitive information, the NYT said. According to military analysts, the papers appear to have been altered in certain parts from their original format, overstating American estimates of Ukrainian war dead and understating estimates of Russian troops killed, citing how the modifications could point to an effort of disinformation by Moscow.
“We are aware of the reports of social media posts and the department is reviewing the matter,” said Sabrina Singh, the deputy press secretary at the Pentagon, as officials were working to get them deleted but had not yet succeeded.
The NYT said the documents, which are five weeks old with at least one carrying a “top secret” label, do not contain details of when, how, or where Ukraine intends to launch its counteroffensive.
However, according to analysts, the leak represents a “significant breach of American intelligence in the effort to aid Ukraine”.
One of the documents, which circulated on pro-Russian government channels, summarised the training schedules of 12 Ukrainian combat brigades, and said nine of them were being trained by US and Nato forces, and needed 250 tanks and more than 350 mechanised vehicles, the newspaper said.
The classified papers also contain details on expenditure rates for munitions under Ukrainian military control, including for the Himars rocket systems, the US-made artillery rocket systems that have proved highly effective against Russian forces.
In a separate development on Friday, Russia appeared to have made important gains in Bakhmut, one of the bloodiest battles of the year-long war, with outgunned Ukrainian troops holding out despite Moscow’s numerical superiority.
The UK Ministry of Defence said in its daily update that Russian forces had “highly likely advanced into the [Bakhmut] town centre, and has seized the west bank of the Bakhmutka River. Ukraine’s key supply route to the west of the town is likely severely threatened.”
It added: “There is realistic possibility that, locally, Wagner and Russian MoD commanders have paused their ongoing feud and improved cooperation.”
The battle for Bakhmut has raged for seven months, with thousands of people killed and hundreds of buildings collapsed or charred. The few remaining civilians have been confined to basements for months with no running water, electricity or gas.
In spite of the rumours earlier this year of a retreat of his troops from the area, Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said he had instructed the army to find forces to bolster the defence of the embattled city.
The eastern military command spokesperson Serhiy Cherevatyi told Reuters that Ukraine controlled the situation in Bakhmut, understood Russian intentions and that Moscow had tactical success in some places, but was paying a high price for it.
“The situation is difficult, the enemy is concentrating maximum efforts to capture Bakhmut. However, it is suffering serious losses and not reaching strategic success,” Cherevatyi said.
“All decisions are taken with the aim of not allowing the enemy to break through our defence, to inflict maximum damage to it and preserve personnel.
“Having tactical success in some places, the enemy pays an exorbitant price for it and loses combat potential every day.”
Reuters contributed to this report
Classified papers said to contain details about military aid and battalion strengths ahead of potential Ukrainian counteroffensive
The Pentagon is investigating a reported security breach that saw classified war documents detailing secret American and Nato plans for supplying aid to Ukraine before its prospective offensive against Russia leaked to social media platforms, the New York Times reported.
The top secret documents were spread on Twitter and Telegram, and reportedly contain charts and details about anticipated weapons deliveries, battalion strengths and other sensitive information, the NYT said. According to military analysts, the papers appear to have been altered in certain parts from their original format, overstating American estimates of Ukrainian war dead and understating estimates of Russian troops killed, citing how the modifications could point to an effort of disinformation by Moscow.
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