II.17.21 - HUMINT in Russia: The Art of Intelligence and Espionage: "The intelligence community's job in Russia has gotten progressively difficult and is moving toward what could be called a denied area. The US has struggled to penetrate the highest levels of the Kremlin since 2017 ..."
"The intelligence community's job in Russia has gotten progressively difficult and is moving toward what could be called a denied area." https://t.co/UeyjQytcWQ https://t.co/YXkgJbXyhI #JOSSICA HUMINT in Russia - Google Search https://t.co/a1FZtrnQF8 pic.twitter.com/MfvG6cpNFh
— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) November 17, 2021
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A 50-page confidential document prepared by the Nepalese intelligence officials reveals the involvement of Chinese intelligence agency - Ministry of State Security (MSS) in playing an “active role” in destabilizing Nepal’s relations with other countries, particularly the United States, and is currently actively propagating and lobbying against the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) Compact grant assistance provided by the United States. Under the MCC grant, Nepal is supposed to receive $500 million in aid from the United States. The MCC, signed in September 2017, is awaiting parliamentary ratification. Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba wants the MCC to get through Parliament, but his coalition partner Pushpa Kamal Dahal, chair of the Maoist Centre, has been creating roadblocks against its approval. Recently, the United States government had expressed concerns over the delay in ratifying the grant. Nepali security forces have concluded that the Chinese intelligence officials’ top-most priority is to invalidate MCC at any cost. The confidential document also details all of China’s intelligence priorities, objectives, networks, and individuals in Nepal. It claims several spies from China’s MSS have infiltrated Nepal in the guise of diplomats, journalists and even businessmen. (by WION Web Team, 2021)
https://www.wionews.com/south-asia/chinese-spy-agency-playing-active-role-to-destabilise-nepals-relations-with-other-nations-report-428958
https://www.wionews.com/south-asia/chinese-spy-agency-playing-active-role-to-destabilise-nepals-relations-with-other-nations-report-428958
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| Chinese spy agency playing active role to destabilise Nepal’s relations with other nations: Report |
| www.wionews.com |
A Nepalese daily has claimed to have access to a confidential document prepared by the Nepalese security officials which revealed the involvement of Chinese intelligence agency in playing an “active role” to sour Kathmandu’s relations with other countries. The Nepalese daily, citing the secret...
The intelligence community's job in Russia has gotten progressively difficult and is moving toward what could be called a denied area. The US has struggled to penetrate the highest levels of the Kremlin since 2017, when one of the highest-level covert US sources inside the Russian government was extracted over safety concerns. Putin is known to keep a close-knit circle of advisers, so the number of potential sources with access to key information is vanishingly small. And the proliferation of digital surveillance tools in Moscow makes traditional human spying extremely difficult. Human intelligence has become difficult -- not to say that the US intelligence doesn't do it. But in Putin's case, reaching a close human source may not be possible. There are two countervailing trends here, one is the sheer difficulty of recruiting in any event, and then the openness and transparency that's available today, and everybody leaves electronic footprints. Former Director of National Intelligence James Clapper said that “the decision-maker in Russia is one guy: It's Putin. It's my impression he really keeps his own counsel.” This has left the US intelligence community to rely on clues gleaned largely from satellites, as well as intercepted signals intelligence, to piece together Russia's plans. While officials can see Russian troops and weapons on the move it is still unclear how far Putin is willing to go.
Amid growing concern about Russia's irregular military movements near Ukraine's border in preparation to invade Ukraine, the Biden administration's efforts to understand Russia's intentions are being hampered by a key blind spot -- the intelligence community's limited visibility into Russian President Vladimir Putin's inner circle. US officials don't yet know what Russia's intentions are largely because of a lack of intelligence on discussions between Putin, who will decide whether to attempt to invade Ukraine, and his inner circle. The Defense Department is also trying to understand Russia's intentions and end goal as unusual military activity inside Russia but near Ukraine's borders continues to be seen. The intelligence also says it is not yet clear whether Russia intends to launch an invasion into Ukraine but notes that the trend lines are unsettling. The presence of Spetsnaz special forces and GRU and SVR intelligence operatives on the ground has increased concerns about the seriousness of Russia's actions and expands their capabilities to a full range of hybrid warfare tactics. Russia might employ such hybrid tactics first, trying to co-opt oligarchs and security forces in Ukraine ahead of time to essentially prime them for a large Russian entry.
Without reliable insight into Putin's motives and decision-making process, the best the US can do is signal as much as it can to try and deter an invasion. The risk of a miscalculation, however, is higher when reliable intelligence is scarce. General Nick Carter, Britain's most senior military officer, said that the risk of accidental war with Russia is greater now than during the Cold War. Many of the traditional diplomatic tools and mechanisms of the Cold War are no longer there and without those tools and mechanisms there is a greater risk that these escalations or this escalation could lead to miscalculation. Putin, for his part, has suggested that any Russian use of force would be in reaction to a western encroachment in the region and attempts to recruit Ukraine into NATO. (By Natasha Bertrand, Jim Sciutto and Katie Bo Lillis | CNN, 2021)
https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/15/politics/us-intelligence-russia-ukraine/index.html
Amid growing concern about Russia's irregular military movements near Ukraine's border in preparation to invade Ukraine, the Biden administration's efforts to understand Russia's intentions are being hampered by a key blind spot -- the intelligence community's limited visibility into Russian President Vladimir Putin's inner circle. US officials don't yet know what Russia's intentions are largely because of a lack of intelligence on discussions between Putin, who will decide whether to attempt to invade Ukraine, and his inner circle. The Defense Department is also trying to understand Russia's intentions and end goal as unusual military activity inside Russia but near Ukraine's borders continues to be seen. The intelligence also says it is not yet clear whether Russia intends to launch an invasion into Ukraine but notes that the trend lines are unsettling. The presence of Spetsnaz special forces and GRU and SVR intelligence operatives on the ground has increased concerns about the seriousness of Russia's actions and expands their capabilities to a full range of hybrid warfare tactics. Russia might employ such hybrid tactics first, trying to co-opt oligarchs and security forces in Ukraine ahead of time to essentially prime them for a large Russian entry.
Without reliable insight into Putin's motives and decision-making process, the best the US can do is signal as much as it can to try and deter an invasion. The risk of a miscalculation, however, is higher when reliable intelligence is scarce. General Nick Carter, Britain's most senior military officer, said that the risk of accidental war with Russia is greater now than during the Cold War. Many of the traditional diplomatic tools and mechanisms of the Cold War are no longer there and without those tools and mechanisms there is a greater risk that these escalations or this escalation could lead to miscalculation. Putin, for his part, has suggested that any Russian use of force would be in reaction to a western encroachment in the region and attempts to recruit Ukraine into NATO. (By Natasha Bertrand, Jim Sciutto and Katie Bo Lillis | CNN, 2021)
https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/15/politics/us-intelligence-russia-ukraine/index.html
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| US struggles with intelligence blind spot as Russia builds up forces near Ukraine |
| www.cnn.com |
After publicly sounding the alarm about Russia's irregular military movements near Ukraine's border, the Biden administration's efforts to understand Russia's intentions are being hampered by a key blind spot -- the intelligence community's limited visibility into Russian President Vladimir Putin's....
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Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) · November 17, 2017. The fall 2017 CIA “puppy class” is in high gear. The girls and new boy have learned all of ...
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