Does the FBI CI Service use any predictive models to identify the possible and coming October Surprise 2024?
Michael_Novakhov shared this story . Nick Catoggio June 6, 2024 · 15 min read 3 From the Boiling Frogs on The Dispatch From time to time when Jonah Goldberg appears on CNN, he and the other panelists are asked to make political predictions. Sometimes that’s easy. For instance, one can safely predict that Donald Trump isn’t going to win his “absolute immunity” case before the Supreme Court, just as surely as he wasn’t going to lose the case brought against Colorado for barring him from the ballot there . But it feels unfair to ask Jonah and the rest of the gang to go on guessing what will happen in a modern presidential campaign, when insanely destabilizing “October surprises” have become standard procedure. The only safe prediction in 2024 is that the race will be upended by something completely unpredictable. It wasn’t always that way, dear reader. I am an old-ish man, yet the only meaningful October surprise of my lifetime until 2016 came when